Summary: Chicago grains are trading higher in Thursday morning business as traders lean into weather risk, stronger energy and a steady export backdrop. Wheat is leading on dry Plains forecasts and acreage uncertainty, while corn and soybeans are drawing support from crude, biofuels and ongoing demand flows.
Energy is giving the market a firmer tone to start the day. Crude oil is up $3.61 and has already bounced sharply off earlier lows, restoring part of the biofuel narrative after recent turbulence tied to the Iran conflict. That matters for corn through ethanol margins and for soybeans through soybean oil demand, while also keeping freight and fertilizer costs in focus across the whole complex.
Wheat is the clear leader this morning, with Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis all higher after Wednesday’s double-digit gains. The next week looks dry for much of the Plains from Nebraska to Texas, and much of SRW country is also expected to stay dry with only scattered precipitation. With temperatures turning warm, traders are seeing another round of weather premium building into the market.
Export demand is adding fuel to the wheat rally. The trade is looking for 300,000 to 550,000 metric tons of wheat sales in the March 12 week, while Taiwan has already booked 105,025 metric tons of U.S. wheat in an overnight tender. That demand arrives as Allendale pegs U.S. wheat acreage at 44.88 million acres, down 423,000 acres from last year, reinforcing the idea that supply may be tighter than the market expected earlier in the season.
Corn is also firm, with cash values and futures both responding to the broader energy move. The national average cash corn price is up 9 1/4 cents to $4.20, while the export-sales market is looking for 0.6 million to 1.8 million metric tons of old crop corn sales in the March 12 week. That keeps the demand picture constructive, even as the market waits to see whether ethanol data and acreage estimates ultimately outweigh the current energy lift.
Ethanol remains a mixed but still important influence on corn. EIA data this morning showed production at 1.093 million barrels per day for the week ending March 13, down 33,000 barrels per day, while stocks rose by 827,000 barrels to 26.407 million barrels. Gasoline prices have also climbed sharply from $2.94 at the end of February to $3.72 for the week of March 16, which helps support the broader biofuel backdrop even if weekly ethanol production softened.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher, with new crop again leading the move as the new crop soy/corn ratio edges toward 2.33. The market is looking for 350,000 to 800,000 metric tons of old crop soybean sales in the weekly export report, and USDA has already announced a 120,000 metric ton private sale of soybean meal for 2026/27 to unknown destinations. That keeps meal demand in focus even as soy oil eases late and the broader bean complex remains sensitive to energy and trade headlines.
South American supply is still doing two jobs at once: it is keeping the market supplied, but also creating friction. Brazil’s soybean harvest is about 59.2% complete, still behind last year’s pace, and March soy exports are seen at 16.32 million tons. At the same time, Brazil is negotiating soybean inspection and safety rules with China after complaints about cargo quality, which may slow shipments and support nearby pricing if delays persist.
Weather in South America is not giving the market much relief on the supply side. Brazil’s central areas still have scattered showers that favor safrinha corn, but the south remains dry enough to worry traders, while Argentina is dealing with a mix of heavy rain in some areas and crop-stage timing that limits how much benefit those rains can deliver. That keeps localized risk premiums alive for corn and soy, even with large overall crop prospects.
Policy is another important support layer this morning. The White House’s 60-day waiver of the Jones Act for fuel, fertilizer and other goods underlines how serious the current shipping and input-cost disruptions are becoming. It may not immediately solve the pricing problem, but it helps keep fertilizer and fuel availability in the spotlight at exactly the time farmers are preparing for spring work.
What traders are watching today is whether the export-sales numbers confirm the early optimism and whether the crude rebound can hold. Any upside surprise in wheat, corn or soybean sales would reinforce the current tone, while stronger-than-expected acreage numbers from private surveys and future USDA updates could cap the rally later in the session.
Wheat — May ’26 CBOT is at $6.04 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents, and trade is still running about 6 cents higher at the moment. Wheat is leading because the Plains stay dry, temperatures are warming and export demand is lining up ahead of the weekly sales report, while tighter acreage ideas add another layer of support.
Corn — May ’26 CBOT is at $4.63 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents, and is still up about 4 cents in early Thursday trade. Corn is being pulled higher by the stronger crude move, firmer cash values and the expectation of solid export sales, even as the ethanol report showed a softer weekly production pace.
Soybeans — May ’26 CBOT are at $11.61 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents, and are modestly higher again this morning. Beans are getting support from meal demand, a fresh private meal sale and the energy bounce, but the market is still watching Brazil’s export pace, Chinese inspection issues and the larger new-crop acreage outlook.