Grain markets ended Thursday with a selective bid rather than broad-based strength. Wheat posted clear gains across all three U.S. exchanges, corn finished modestly higher, and soybeans closed marginally lower. The tone reflected active weather-risk pricing and policy-driven flows, while global supply expectations continued to limit the scope of rallies.

Wheat was the standout performer, buoyed by mounting cold-weather risk across key growing regions. A powerful arctic front is expected to sweep through the Central and Southern Plains, bringing widespread snow, ice, and sharply colder temperatures. While snow cover may protect some winter wheat acreage, exposed areas face elevated winterkill risk, which drove buying interest despite otherwise comfortable global supply projections.

Additional wheat support came from steady production outlooks. LSEG maintained its 2026/27 U.S. wheat production estimate at 51.7 MMT, noting that current snow cover and the absence of extreme cold have so far limited crop stress. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian rapeseed production estimates were unchanged despite recent cold, as thick snow cover in western regions reduced damage risk, reinforcing the broader theme that weather remains a key swing factor rather than an outright bearish driver.

Corn futures finished Thursday with modest gains, supported by spillover strength from wheat and firm cash markets. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price rose to $3.87 3/4, reflecting steady interior demand. USDA also confirmed additional export sales of corn to Colombia and unknown destinations, reinforcing near-term demand interest.

Ethanol data and policy headlines shaped corn sentiment late in the session. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production slipping to 1.119 million barrels per day from last week’s record, while stocks climbed to 25.739 million barrels. Exports, however, jumped to 218,000 barrels per day, near record levels, and refiner inputs increased, helping offset concerns tied to the production pullback.

Biofuel policy remained unresolved but influential. While the House funding bill advanced, it did so without language allowing year-round E15 sales, despite pressure from corn growers and some lawmakers. Comments from House leadership suggested the issue remains under negotiation, keeping corn traders cautious but attentive to potential structural demand changes.

Soybeans settled Thursday with slightly mixed action, pressured primarily by weakness in soy oil. Soy oil futures fell 11 to 23 points, outweighing gains in soymeal, which rose up to $4.80 per ton. The CmdtyView national average cash soybean price held steady at $9.94, indicating stable underlying physical demand.

Export and South American fundamentals provided offsetting support for soybeans. USDA reported a private export sale of 192,350 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations, while Brazilian industry group ABIOVE raised its soybean crush estimate to 61 MMT and projected 2026 exports at 111.5 MMT. Brazil’s crop estimate was placed at 177.12 MMT, underscoring heavy future supply even as near-term demand remains constructive.

Weather developments in South America continued to present mixed signals. Increased rainfall forecast over Argentina and Paraguay is expected to support corn and soybean development, while southern Brazil is projected to remain drier, posing some downside risk to yield potential in localized areas. These conditions helped maintain a modest weather premium without materially shifting overall production expectations.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.15 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents. Strength was driven by escalating Plains cold risk, improved snow-cover protection dynamics, and spillover buying across global wheat markets.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.24, up 2 1/4 cents. Support came from wheat strength, firmer cash prices, confirmed export sales, and near-record ethanol export levels, even as E15 policy uncertainty capped gains.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans finished at $10.64, down 1/2 cent. Weakness in soy oil offset gains in soymeal and fresh export sales, while rising Brazilian crush and export projections kept longer-term supply pressure in focus.