Grain markets opened Thursday higher following a mixed and cautious close on Wednesday. Wheat, corn, and soybeans are all posting modest gains early, as traders reassess weather risks and policy developments after several sessions dominated by supply-side pressure. The tone reflects selective risk-covering rather than broad-based bullish conviction.
Weather is the dominant early driver for wheat. NOAA and model guidance point to a significant arctic cold front sweeping through the Central and Southern Plains late this week, bringing widespread snow, ice, and sharply colder temperatures. While snow cover may protect some winter wheat acreage, exposed areas remain at risk of winterkill, lending near-term support to SRW and HRW futures.
Export sales timing is also influencing sentiment. USDA’s weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday due to the Monday holiday, leaving the market without a key demand reference today. In the meantime, traders are positioning cautiously after Wednesday’s mixed wheat performance, where winter wheats weakened but spring wheat showed resilience on tightening supply expectations.
Corn is trading modestly higher early as the market balances fresh export headlines against heavy supply expectations. USDA confirmed private sales of 150,000 MT of corn to Colombia and 195,000 MT to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year, providing short-term support. However, global production remains elevated and domestic cash prices continue to soften, limiting upside enthusiasm.
Biofuel policy remains a key cross-market driver for corn. Provisions allowing year-round sales of E15 gasoline have been added to a House budget bill, with lawmakers signaling urgency ahead of the January 30 funding deadline. Corn growers see this as a supportive structural demand shift, though traders remain cautious until legislative outcomes are confirmed.
Soybeans are leading early gains as strength in soy oil offsets softer soymeal. Soy oil futures surged on Wednesday and remain firm this morning, supported by biofuel optimism and relative value versus palm oil. Open interest data suggest net new buying in soybeans, reinforcing near-term momentum despite lower cash bean prices and expectations for large South American supplies.
South American weather continues to provide mixed signals. Northern Brazil is expected to see increased rainfall that could slow early soybean harvest, while southern Brazil and parts of Argentina remain drier, sustaining some downside risk to yield potential. The net effect keeps a weather premium alive for soybeans and corn without materially altering overall production outlooks.
Logistics are also in focus. Mississippi River levels remain low but not critical, and upcoming winter storms are expected to improve flows and ease drought pockets. Traders are monitoring river conditions closely as a secondary factor for near-term export competitiveness.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting the day up about 4 3/4 cents after closing Wednesday at $5.07 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents. Early strength reflects growing Plains cold risk and expectations for improved moisture, even as global stocks and Russian export capacity cap larger rallies.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is up about 1 1/4 cents at the open following a Wednesday close at $4.21 3/4, down 2 cents. Support comes from confirmed export sales and biofuel policy headlines, while ample global supply and softer cash markets restrain upside.
Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are up about 3 1/2 cents early after settling Wednesday at $10.64 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents. Strength in soy oil, biofuel optimism, and net new buying are driving gains, partially offset by weaker cash prices and expectations for heavy South American availability.