Grain markets finished Thursday with a mixed tone, reflecting crop-specific fundamentals rather than a broad macro move. Soybeans emerged as the clear leader, posting solid gains, while wheat and corn drifted lower into the close as traders weighed export performance against still-comfortable global supply outlooks.

Wheat markets weakened across all three U.S. exchanges, reversing early optimism. Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW, and Minneapolis spring wheat all closed lower as disappointing U.S. export sales data outweighed ongoing international tender activity and weather considerations. The lack of follow-through buying signaled that global competition continues to cap upside.

U.S. wheat export sales totaled just 156,255 MT for the week ending January 8, falling well below levels needed to materially tighten the balance sheet. While Saudi Arabia’s 595,000 MT tender and South Korea’s purchase of 50,000 MT of U.S. wheat kept demand headlines active, the market focused on the weak confirmed sales pace.

European fundamentals added further pressure to wheat. Expana raised its EU wheat production forecast to 128.6 MMT but simultaneously cut its export outlook to 28.8 MMT, reinforcing the idea that large supplies and competitive pricing continue to limit export flows from key origins. This backdrop remains structurally bearish for global wheat values.

Corn futures also ended modestly lower, despite encouraging export activity. USDA reported 1.14 MMT of 2025/26 corn sales for the week, more than triple the prior week and above last year’s pace, with Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan leading purchases. Even so, traders focused on ample South American supply and steady Brazilian production estimates, which restrained price advances.

Brazil’s CONAB held its 2025/26 corn production estimate steady at 138.87 MMT, reinforcing expectations of large exportable supplies later in the season. This, combined with soft cash prices in the U.S., kept corn futures under pressure despite the rebound in weekly export sales.

Soybeans stood out as the strongest performer of the day. Futures rallied sharply as USDA reported total export sales of 2.06 MMT, the third-largest weekly total of the marketing year and more than four times larger than the same week last year. China accounted for 1.224 MMT of the total, confirming sustained import appetite at current price levels.

Additional support for soybeans came from the NOPA crush report. December crush reached 224.991 million bushels, slightly above expectations and nearly 9% higher year-on-year, underscoring robust domestic demand. While soybean oil stocks rose sharply, optimism around upcoming EPA biodiesel mandates helped the market look past the inventory build.

South American supply signals for soybeans were mixed but did not derail the rally. CONAB trimmed Brazil’s soybean production estimate to 176.12 MMT, while AgroConsult raised its outlook to 182.2 MMT. The conflicting estimates kept longer-term supply debates alive, but near-term demand momentum dominated trading.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.10 1/2, down 2 cents. Weak U.S. export sales and increased EU production estimates outweighed international tender headlines, keeping wheat under pressure into the close.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn finished at $4.20 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents. Strong weekly export sales provided support, but steady Brazilian production forecasts and ample global supply limited upside follow-through.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans settled at $10.53, up 10 1/2 cents. A surge in export sales led by China, combined with a stronger-than-expected NOPA crush and supportive biofuel policy signals, drove soybeans to the top of the grain complex.