Wheat — Trading began calmly, with Chicago December ’25 around $5.13¼/bu (≈+¼¢ vs. Thursday’s close). Thursday brought a solid recovery across all three exchanges (CBOT/KC/MGE) against the backdrop of broader commodity gains and a crude oil rally, while Friday morning’s tone remains mixed in spring wheat. The IGC raised its 2025/26 forecast: production 827 MMT (+8), stocks 275 MMT (+5), while France accelerated planting to 57% and Turkey cut its wheat outlook to 17.9 MMT.
Corn — Friday’s Chicago December ’25 session opened near $4.26/bu (≈-2¢ vs. Thursday’s close at $4.28). On Thursday, corn gained momentum from dual rallies in wheat and soybeans and higher crude oil; open interest increased, suggesting new long positions. The IGC left production steady month-on-month but raised world stocks to 299 MMT (due to a larger carry-in), while in France harvest sped up to 75% with weaker crop conditions than last year.
Soybeans — November ’25 opened the day at around $10.43¼/bu (≈-1½¢ from Thursday’s close at $10.44¾), following a winning Thursday session in futures and processed products. The market is watching option expiry and news of possible repricing of Russian crude flows by Chinese buyers in the run-up to diplomatic meetings. The IGC lowered soybean output to 428 MMT and stocks to 79 MMT.
Global drivers and key headlines for today’s trade
The Trump–Xi summit set for next Thursday at APEC has been formalized and is supporting risk appetite in Asia and commodities. Potential de-escalation of tariffs and technology restrictions could thaw agricultural flows in the short term, something markets are already capitalizing on today.
The IGC raised global grain stocks for 2025/26 to 618 MMT (a 3-year high): wheat 275 MMT (+5), corn 299 MMT (+5), while soybeans are down to 79 MMT (-4). This signals softer balance sheet pressure on wheat/corn and a tighter oilseed complex — a framework shaping today’s spreads.
Russia confirmed it has already reached 135 MMT of grain (incl. 93.5 MMT wheat, ~+8% y/y), with harvest nearing completion — a signal of steady exports through Q4 and early 2026, factored into basis levels and Black Sea offers.
Turkey expects a decline in 2025 grain production: wheat -13.9% to 17.9 MMT, barley -25.9% to 6 MMT, total grains ~34.2 MMT (-12.4%). Lower regional volumes support today’s tone in Mediterranean offers.
France is accelerating: 75% corn harvest (above 5-year avg. of 63%) and 57% of soft wheat planted (strong weekly progress), but corn rated good/very good stands at 59% (down from 75% last year) — a factor for the EU’s internal balance.
Czechia raised its grain crop forecast to 7.66 MMT (+9.8% vs. July), contributing to a more comfortable Central European balance and reducing pressure on third-country imports.
In biofuels, U.S. lawmakers from both parties are pressing the Treasury to finalize rules for the 45Z “clean fuel” credit to unlock investments. A clearer framework could boost domestic demand for corn/soy — a positive that traders are already watching in today’s session.
In Argentina (BAGE), corn area is pegged at 7.8 M ha, with planting progress at 33.8%. This trajectory, alongside the expected start of soybean sowing in November, supports the idea of a smooth replenishment of New World flows into Q1’26.
Weather sets today’s risk framework: warm November and moderate rains in the U.S. support rapid winter wheat planting; in Brazil, the dry window before next week’s rain return speeds up soybean planting; Ukraine/SW Russia move into a wetter spell, improving soil moisture ahead of freeze; Australia faces storm risks in eastern areas — all factors shaping today’s yields, basis levels, and freight.