Wheat

On Tuesday, Chicago wheat lost its initial momentum and closed weaker. The attached report does not publish the official settlement price; the last quote toward the end of the session showed Dec ’25 CBOT around $5.03/bu, up about 2¾¢ on the day. The market weighed a forecast of 1–3 inches of rain in parts of the Southern Plains—favorable for establishing winter wheat—against still-comfortable global supplies. Algeria’s soft-wheat tender kept demand signals active, and Black Sea updates indicated Russia’s 2025 crop idea was lifted to ~88 MMT, while Ukraine reported winter wheat sowing nearly three-quarters complete.

Corn

Corn corrected after recent gains, with typical “Turnaround Tuesday” pressure and profit-taking trimming advances. Although the source pack does not list the final settlement, the last afternoon reference showed Dec ’25 near $4.23/bu, up ~3¼¢ at mid-session before late pressure. The average U.S. cash corn price stood at ~ $3.79½/bu, and near-term ethanol production was expected to remain firm after last week’s strong report; subsequently, the EIA confirmed output near multi-month highs with a draw in stocks. The export tone remained constructive, with a South Korean buyer booking fresh tonnage, and Brazil’s October corn exports revised higher.

Soybeans

Soybean contracts closed slightly lower after an early attempt to extend Monday’s rally. The document does not include the official settlement; the last intraday indication showed Nov ’25 around $10.34¼/bu, up ~3½¢ at mid-day before slipping to finish about a cent lower. Products moved divergently (soymeal steady–firm, soyoil weaker) as the market digested U.S.–China frictions and South America’s brisk pace; Brazil’s October soybean export estimates were raised again, underscoring the pull toward Atlantic origins, while U.S. weekly inspections remain below last year’s levels.

Global Market Drivers

The U.S. farm-policy backdrop suddenly moved to the forefront, with the Trump administration announcing that $3 billion in suspended farm aid will be released this week, along with plans for further assistance to soybean growers shut out of the Chinese market. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed that Farm Service Agency programs, including farm loans and price-loss coverage, will resume despite the government shutdown. The move shows how farmer support remains a political tool, cushioning cash flows in a harvest season marked by volatile prices and restricted export channels.

Trade dynamics remain pivotal, with no new U.S. soybean sales to China and nothing scheduled to load, according to the American Soybean Association and the U.S. Soybean Export Council. Instead, harvested beans are being diverted into storage, raising the risk of a growing carryover if the stalemate persists. Farmer groups warn of financial collapse for those already on the edge, particularly younger operators with heavy debt. Meanwhile, Japan is preparing a purchase package of soybeans, gas, and U.S. pickups for President Trump’s visit, potentially trimming Brazilian soy volumes to make room for U.S. supply.

Developments in South America continue to confirm supply abundance. Brazil’s October export programs were raised again, with soybeans now estimated at 7.34 MMT, soymeal at 2.09 MMT, and corn at 6.57 MMT. Abiove lifted its 2025/26 soybean crop estimate to 178.5 MMT, nearly 7 MMT above last year, and crush is expected to increase by 2 MMT. Argentina is also benefiting from favorable rainfall this week, supporting corn and preparing fields for soybean planting to accelerate in November.

China remains caught between fickle weather and strained trade flows. Record northern rains have damaged crops in leading provinces such as Henan and Shandong, forcing farmers to sell quickly at pressured prices, which have fallen over 3% this month. Imports are down 93% year-to-date to below 1 MMT, leaving the country exposed to supply shocks. At the same time, Beijing is mobilizing resources for grain drying and drainage, and the farm ministry has launched a 60-day campaign to mitigate flood impacts on winter wheat sowing.

Weather risks across major production zones continue to drive sentiment. In the U.S., frequent rains are delaying harvest progress but helping replenish drought-hit areas in the Midwest and improving Mississippi River navigation. Forecasts point to a drier mid-week trend in the Central and Southern Plains before another round of rains arrives, favorable for winter wheat establishment. South America’s mixed conditions include a drier interlude in Brazil before showers restart in central regions early next week, while Argentina benefits from renewed moisture. In Europe and the Black Sea, scattered rains are improving soil reserves, though dryness in southwestern Russia remains a serious winterkill threat.

Policy signals add new complexity for vegetable-oil and grain flows. Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption rose nearly 10% year on year to 10.57 million kiloliters under B40, with a target to shift to B50 by late 2026—a change with major implications for palm and soyoil balances. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reversed its stance on expanding E15 sales, marking a widening rift between oil and farm lobbies over biofuel policy. In Brazil, officials reiterated concerns that the B16 mandate could slip beyond March 2026.

Corporate and structural moves also shaped the market. Louis Dreyfus and Molinos advanced a $1.3 billion restructuring offer for troubled Argentine soy exporter Vicentin, underscoring consolidation trends in South America’s oilseed sector. Meanwhile, U.S. ethanol production hit near-record levels last week at 1.112 million barrels per day, with stocks falling by 709,000 barrels—evidence of robust demand even as policy debates continue.

Finally, geopolitical signals remain in focus. President Trump expressed optimism about his upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea, though he acknowledged it may not materialize. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Chinese officials in Malaysia beforehand to defuse trade tensions. With rare earths, tariffs, and soybeans on the agenda, any progress—or lack thereof—will ripple quickly through global grain and oilseed markets.