Wheat

CBOT soft red wheat Dec ’25 closed at $5.07¼/bu, up ½¢ on Wednesday, with KC HRW also 1–2¢ higher and Minneapolis spring up 3–4¢. The board recovered from mixed midday trade as the market weighed slow EU shipments, uneven Black Sea weather, and trimmed Australian prospects into mid-October planting windows.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn settled at $4.22/bu, up 2¼¢, supported by firmer cash prints and a rebound in U.S. ethanol output. Traders monitored harvest pace against river constraints and Brazil’s export competitiveness as open interest climbed across grains.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans finished at $10.29½/bu, up 7½¢, leading the complex as soyoil gained 44–70 pts and palm oil advanced. Despite data blackout noise, cash beans improved and November’s month-to-date futures average continued to guide U.S. crop-insurance price discovery.

Global Market Drivers

Indonesia advanced its B50 biodiesel roadmap—lab work is complete and officials can proceed to road tests—bolstering expectations for stronger domestic draw and tighter palm oil export availability into the 2026 mandate horizon. Combined with softer Malaysian output and firm rival soyoil, the veg-oil backdrop lent support to the soy complex.

U.S. energy inputs turned constructive for corn grind. EIA reported ethanol production up 76k bpd w/w to 1.071m bpd, with stocks easing to 22.72m bbl in the week ending Oct 3; exports rose to 138k bpd even as refiner inputs dipped slightly—net supportive to corn demand.

Weather and logistics kept U.S. flows on a knife-edge. Wet spells in the Northern Plains and parts of the West delayed corn/soy harvest, while much of the Midwest/Plains stayed warm and mostly dry—favorable for fieldwork. In the Delta, recent showers briefly boosted Mississippi River levels, but broader declines left barge capacity and transport costs a continuing watch-item.

Brazil showed a two-speed setup. Fronts brought helpful rain to the south, aiding planting and early growth, while central Brazil stayed notably dry until models flagged showers late week that could mark the real start of the wet season and stabilize soybean establishment.

Supply chain risk in Argentina eased as the government ordered oilseed workers to suspend an indefinite strike for a 15-day mandatory conciliation period—reducing immediate disruption risks at crush hubs and steadying near-term meal/oil availability after late-September’s tax-driven export flurry.

China’s origination mix shifted sharply. Customs data showed corn imports from Russia tripled to 287,000 t in the first eight months, making Russia the top supplier so far this year as Beijing leaned on carry-in stocks and trimmed total corn imports versus 2024—reshaping Pacific Basin spreads.

Ukraine’s balance sheets improved on yield: SovEcon raised wheat to 22.9 MMT and corn to 31.8 MMT for 2025, even as early-season exports slowed (wheat 4.7 MMT vs 6.1 a year ago; corn 0.9 MMT vs 2.8). Notably, recent corn shipments to China were zero, with Beijing favoring Ukrainian barley.

Europe’s trade pulse remained uneven as EU soft-wheat exports fell 25% y/y to 4.96 MMT through Oct 5, while barley exports rose 42% and corn imports dropped 30%. Against that, Rusagrotrans projected Russia’s Oct wheat exports at 5.1 MMT (above the 5-yr avg), and southeast Australia’s dryness threatened 0.5–1.0 MMT in possible cuts for Victoria/South Australia—tightening the global matrix at the margin despite aggressive Black Sea availability.