Wheat

CBOT soft red wheat Dec ’25 closed at $5.06¾/bu, down 6¢ on Tuesday, with KC HRW off 3–4¢ and Minneapolis spring 4–5¢ lower. U.S. wheat inspections eased to 505k t and European exports are lagging last year, keeping rallies in check even as planting weather turns drier across parts of the U.S. winter belt.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn settled at $4.19¾/bu, down 2¢, slipping on light technical pressure. Traders looked ahead to mid-week EIA ethanol data after last week’s output dip, while Bloomberg’s survey pegs U.S. corn harvest near 31% amid the ongoing federal data blackout.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans finished at $10.22/bu, up 4¼¢, as soyoil rallied 38–74 pts and palm oil firmed overnight. Inspections improved to 768k t w/w but remain far below last year; November’s early-month average around $10.19 continues to anchor crop-insurance price discovery.

Global Market Drivers

U.S. macro uncertainty weighed heavily as the USDA reporting blackout continued into another week, leaving traders without WASDE, Crop Progress, or weekly sales. The absence of official data magnified reliance on private forecasts, cash indices, and shipping lineups, adding volatility to spreads and futures curve movements as the market awaited clarity.

Export flow signals were a mixed bag. Gulf registrations stayed steady, but inspections highlighted weak wheat flows at just over 500k t, offset by stronger corn near 1.6 MMT. Traders also noted soft soybean inspections, with cumulative shipments running well below last year due to the absence of Chinese demand. This imbalance heightened sensitivity to any fresh tender activity or government-to-government deals.

South American fundamentals continued to shift. Argentina’s corn narrative is strengthening with planting momentum building under favorable rains and a projected record 58 MMT harvest for 2025/26. Yet soybean acreage is expected to shrink as farmers pivot to corn, with La Niña weather risks during December–February looming as a potential drag on yields.

Vegetable oils provided a stabilizing undertone. Malaysian palm oil inventories were projected to decline by 2.5% to 2.15 MMT in September, the first draw in seven months. Exports climbed 7.7% to 1.43 MMT while production eased, tightening global veg-oil supply and lending support to soyoil futures during China’s holiday-thinned trade.

Geopolitical trade dynamics added another layer of uncertainty. China’s absence from U.S. soybean purchases this autumn is unprecedented, forcing exporters to pivot to smaller destinations like Vietnam, Nigeria, and Bangladesh. These flows provide incremental support but fall short of offsetting the gap left by Beijing. Market participants remain alert for any policy-driven shifts from upcoming U.S.–China negotiations that could suddenly revive Gulf demand.

Grain policy developments also shaped sentiment. The Philippines extended its rice import ban until the end of 2025, only allowing a narrow window for January imports. This prolonged restriction supports Asian rice prices and indirectly fuels substitution demand into wheat and corn among feed buyers across Southeast Asia.

European supply cues reinforced competitiveness in the wheat market. Poland’s wheat harvest was revised up to 13.4 MMT, and EU export data showed shipments holding robust despite pressure from lower-priced Black Sea origins. This dynamic sets up a competitive winter season for EU exporters navigating demand headwinds and rival offers.

Finally, logistics remained a key wildcard. Water levels along the Mississippi River fell again, stoking concerns over barge traffic delays during peak U.S. harvest flows. Any prolonged disruption would reroute shipments onto rail or truck, raising transportation costs just as U.S. exporters already struggle against aggressive competition from Brazil, Argentina, and the Black Sea.