Wheat

Wheat ended Monday mixed, with Chicago soft red futures fractionally softer into the bell as December ’25 closed at $5.19½/bu (−¼¢). Kansas City hard red firmed by 2¼–3¼ cents across the curve, while Minneapolis spring eased in nearby months. The U.S. Crop Progress update showed 34% of winter wheat planted and 13% emerged—near seasonal markers—while export inspections printed 738,604 MT for the week ending Sept. 25, led by Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Japan. With Tuesday’s Grain Stocks due and trade penciling ~2.054 bbu of wheat on hand, the board weighed tender interest against a still-competitive global supply stack.

Corn

Corn slipped into the close as energy data overshadowed otherwise steady export tone, with December ’25 settling at $4.21½/bu (−½¢). USDA reported private sales of 135,660 MT to Mexico and 110,668 MT to unknown, while inspections hit 1.527 MMT, up 10% week-on-week and 33% above last year’s pace. Crop Progress showed 95% dented, 71% mature, and 18% harvested, with conditions steady at 66% good/excellent. Markets braced for Tuesday’s Grain Stocks (street ~1.336 bbu), even as Brazil’s first-crop seeding in the Center-South reached 32%.

Soybeans

Soybeans softened, with November ’25 closing at $10.10½/bu (−3¼¢) as soymeal finished mixed and soyoil drifted lower alongside weaker crude. The U.S. had 79% of beans dropping leaves and 19% harvested, with conditions up a point to 62% good/excellent. Weekly inspections printed 593,956 MT—5% above last year but down from the prior week—while Brazil’s planting pace reached 3.2% as of Thursday, ahead of last year. With China still largely absent from new-crop U.S. purchases, product spreads and overseas origination continued to steer sentiment.

Global Market Drivers

The grain market entered the week with momentum still rippling out from Argentina, where the abrupt suspension—and just as sudden reinstatement—of export taxes created a shockwave of sales and uncertainty. Farmers rushed nearly $7 billion worth of soy and corn onto the books during the brief window, leaving an estimated $4.93 billion in product still waiting to move. Even with levies back in place, the move underlined Argentina’s ability to jolt global flows in a matter of days and to keep South America highly competitive into the final quarter of the year.

In parallel, China continued to dominate the demand narrative. While Beijing has not returned to U.S. new-crop beans in meaningful volumes, its appetite remains evident in South America. USDA’s Beijing post left its 2025/26 soybean import outlook steady at 106 MMT while revising the prior year higher, reflecting the pivot toward Brazil and Argentina. With domestic yields lifted by technology and a firm autumn harvest underway, China is signaling that it can meet part of its protein needs at home, even as its massive hog herd stabilizes feed demand at solid—if not spectacular—levels.

Vegetable oil markets added another layer of tension. Forecasts of tighter balances into the first half of 2026 lifted expectations for palm and soyoil, with analysts warning of $100–$150 per tonne upside risk. Malaysia’s stockpile, currently at a multi-month high, is expected to draw down as output eases and Indian festive buying accelerates. U.S. discussions on potential tariff relief for Malaysian commodities and manufactured goods only added more intrigue, creating yet another wildcard for global palm oil and veg-oil flows.

Across the Atlantic, Europe and the Black Sea reshaped wheat optics. The European Commission raised EU soft wheat output to 132.6 MMT, providing extra weight on Chicago markets, while Russia’s SovEcon trimmed its 2025/26 export projection as early shipments lagged. Ukraine, despite the ongoing wartime disruptions, reported over 30 MMT already harvested, though corn still trails its usual pace. Together, these updates painted a picture of abundant supply potential, yet one still riddled with logistical and weather-related caveats.

Weather patterns themselves continued to steer sentiment. In the United States, conditions diverged regionally: the Northern Plains stayed dry and harvest-friendly, while the Delta slipped back toward low-water risks that could throttle barge traffic in October. South America, meanwhile, dealt with a split reality—Argentina benefiting from moisture and fresh rains on the way, while central Brazil turned uncomfortably dry, threatening germination just as planting was accelerating. These uneven conditions kept both short-term harvest logistics and long-term crop development firmly on traders’ radars.

South America also reminded markets of its resilience in supply chains. Brazil’s September soybean export forecast was only slightly trimmed, keeping shipments above 7 MMT, while corn exports pointed toward 40 MMT for the marketing year. Domestic dynamics showed corn prices easing in several regions as buyers relied on stocks, while biodiesel demand helped soybean oil claim an unprecedented 50% share of crush margins—a sign of shifting profitability that could reshape planting and processing decisions.

India, typically a modest player in grain import headlines, suddenly became a potential swing factor. New Delhi is considering U.S. corn imports specifically for ethanol, tying agricultural flows to its broader energy negotiations with Washington. Any breakthrough on tariffs could open a fresh corridor for U.S. corn just as low river levels and strong domestic ethanol stocks cast uncertainty over domestic usage.

Finally, Australia and Russia provided a mix of cushion and risk. Australia’s wheat outlook remained broadly positive, tracking toward its third-largest crop ever, though timely October rains are needed in the east. Russia, by contrast, declared an agricultural emergency in Rostov after drought and frost damage hit around one million hectares. With Stavropol overtaking Rostov as the country’s top producing region this year, the internal reshuffling added fresh uncertainty to quality and logistics even as Russia remains the largest player in global wheat tenders.