Wheat

Chicago wheat started Monday a touch lower in early dealings. December ’25 CBOT hovered near $5.18¼/bu (≈1½¢ under Friday’s $5.19¾ close) as the market digested a softer EU export pace and weather that looks broadly harvest-friendly in the U.S. Plains and Midwest later this week. Positioning stayed heavy: funds expanded their net short in Chicago to ~97,935 contracts as of Sept. 23, even as U.S. cumulative export commitments climbed to 13.699 MMT—up 23% y/y and the fastest since 2013/14. Traders are also braced for Tuesday’s Grain Stocks read (street ~2.054 bbu) and a trimmed Russian export outlook from SovEcon at 43.4 MMT.

Corn

Corn opened softer. December ’25 was quoted around $4.19½/bu (≈2½¢ under Friday’s $4.22 settle) as last week’s surprise ethanol stock build overshadowed firm export momentum. Despite managed money adding to net shorts, U.S. export commitments reached 25.757 MMT—75% above last year and a record for the third week of the marketing year—while Brazil’s first-crop corn seeding hit 32% in the Center-South. Markets are watching Tuesday’s Stocks report (street ~1.336 bbu) and river levels in the Delta, where renewed dryness threatens barge logistics into October.

Soybeans

Soybeans eased at the bell. November ’25 traded near $10.10/bu (≈3¾¢ below Friday’s $10.13¾), with funds flipping back to a net short in beans and staying net short across meal and oil— a first three-way short since March. U.S. export sales remain light overall (11.0 MMT; 24% of USDA’s target), but notable strength persists ex-China. In South America, Brazil’s planting sprinted to 4.16%—a record start—while central Brazil turned drier again, raising germination risk for early fields.

Global currents driving today’s trade

Argentina’s two-day tax holiday still ripples through Q4. After a brief suspension of export levies triggered a selling frenzy—$7B in declarations, ~1.2 MMT of soy sold Tuesday alone—Buenos Aires restored taxes (24.5% soy by-products; 9.5% corn). Even post-whiplash, BCR estimates $4.93B of soymeal/soyoil/corn remains to sell (≈7.6 MMT soy by-products; 8.9 MMT corn), keeping the Plate a potent near-term competitor.

China stayed the center of the demand map. USDA’s attaché kept 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 MMT and lifted 2024/25 to 107 MMT, noting restrained crush growth (~2%) and the continued tilt toward South American origins. At home, ag tech gains and a solid autumn harvest underpin that stance; separately, China’s sow herd edged to 40.38M head at end-August, hinting at steady but unspectacular meal pull.

Veg-oil signals pointed to tighter H1’26 balances. Industry heavyweights flagged $100–$150/t upside for palm/soyoil into early 2026 on tightening supply, with Malaysia’s palm reserves seen sliding from a 20-month high as output eases and India’s festive demand kicks in. Malaysian palm futures were near 4,385–4,444 ringgit, while policy chatter included prospective U.S. tariff breaks on Malaysian commodities, furniture, and parts—another wildcard for palm flows.

Black Sea and Europe reset wheat optics. The European Commission raised EU soft-wheat output to 132.6 MMT, pressuring Chicago into week-end, while SovEcon trimmed Russia’s 2025/26 wheat exports to 43.4 MMT on sluggish early shipments. Ukraine reported 30.4 MMT total grain cut (wheat 22.5, barley 5.3) from 63% of area, though corn lags y/y; weather remains patchy for winter-wheat establishment.

Weather carved different paths across the Americas. U.S. Northern Plains warmth/dryness aids early harvest; Central/Southern Plains stay mostly dry until a late-week front—good for fieldwork but disruptive if showers linger. The Midwest turns drier after a weekend front, while the Delta’s river bump fades, reviving low-water risk into October. In Brazil, a stalled front benefitted the south, but central Brazil is drying, raising germination failures where seed went in early. Argentina retains supportive soil moisture with another front due next weekend.

South American supply lines hummed. Brazil’s exporters nudged Sept. soybean shipments to 7.15 MMT (trimmed from last week) and corn exports toward 40 MMT pace for 24/25 still need acceleration; CEPEA noted corn price softness in many regions as consumers sit on stocks, while soybean-oil’s share of crush margins hit a record 50.3% on resilient biodiesel demand in Brazil and the U.S.

India emerged as a potential demand pivot. New Delhi is exploring U.S. corn imports for ethanol, dovetailing with broader energy/trade negotiations. Any tariff relief package touching ag or energy could shuffle regional flows and add a new Q4/Q1 outlet for U.S. corn.

Australia and Russia flashed supply risks and cushions. Australia’s outlook remains broadly constructive for a third-largest wheat crop (~35.3 MMT) but needs October rains in the east; Russia declared a federal agricultural emergency in Rostov after drought/frost damaged ~1M ha, shifting top-producer status to Stavropol this year and adding uncertainty to Russia’s internal logistics and quality mix.