Wheat

Wheat futures extended their recent slide on Monday, with all three U.S. exchanges finishing lower. December ’25 CBOT wheat closed at $5.10¾/bu, down 11¾ cents, while Kansas City HRW contracts slipped 4–6 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat ended 2–4 cents weaker. Export inspections offered some relief, showing 854,454 MT shipped in the week ending Sept. 18, nearly 18% above the same week last year, with the Philippines, Mexico, and Vietnam leading. Still, planting progress showed U.S. winter wheat at 20% complete, slightly behind the five-year average, while spring wheat harvest reached 96%. The market remained pressured by global competition and ample supply outlooks despite stronger U.S. sales.

Corn

Corn futures also eased, with December ’25 closing at $4.21¾/bu, down 2¼ cents. USDA reported a private export sale of 320,068 MT of corn to Mexico, reinforcing steady demand, yet weekly shipments slipped 12% from the prior week to 1.329 MMT. Crop progress showed corn at 91% dented and 56% mature, with harvest at 11%, broadly in line with normal pace but slightly behind on development. Crop ratings declined by one point to 66% good/excellent. Brazil’s planting advanced to 25% of the first crop in the Center-South, adding a forward supply factor. Even with U.S. total commitments running well ahead of last year, harvest pressure and macro headwinds capped prices.

Soybeans

Soybeans closed sharply lower, with November ’25 finishing at $10.11/bu, down 14½ cents. Conditions slipped again, with just 61% rated good/excellent, and harvest progress reached 9%, matching average pace. Export inspections showed shipments of 484,116 MT, down more than 40% from last week and slightly below last year, with Egypt, Indonesia, and the UK as leading destinations. Brazil was reported 9% planted, while Argentina temporarily suspended its export tax on soy, soymeal, and oil through October, adding supply-side weight. The absence of fresh Chinese buying and weaker product markets further pressured the complex.

Global Market Drivers

Export flows and trade policies took center stage at the start of the week. Thailand moved ahead with a landmark plan to curb transboundary haze, preparing a ban on feed corn imports from burned fields beginning January. The measure, if finalized, will redirect regional corn flows and could provide a foothold for U.S. exporters once bilateral access is settled. Taiwan added to the trade pulse by committing $10 billion in long-term U.S. agricultural purchases, spanning soy, corn, wheat, and beef, signaling strong demand visibility for years ahead.

South America continued to dominate supply narratives. Brazil advanced its soybean planting to just under 1% of area and maintained its record 177.7 MMT crop projection, even as weather delays linger in Mato Grosso. Corn planting reached 25% in the Center-South, pointing to a faster-than-usual pace. Argentina’s exchange projected a record 146.4 MMT grain harvest, underpinning exports of more than 105 MMT of grains and byproducts in 2025/26. Meanwhile, currency movements limited farmer selling as a stronger real slowed Brazil’s forward sales.

China’s import flows leaned heavily on Brazil once again. August soybean arrivals reached 10.49 MMT, representing 85% of total intake, while U.S. shipments were just 227,000 tons. Despite stronger year-to-date U.S. sales, Beijing has yet to book new-crop soybeans, leaving traders cautious about forward U.S. demand. President Xi used the harvest festival to emphasize food security and technological innovation, underlining the government’s push to scale domestic capacity, a strategy that could reshape long-term import dependence.

Weather continued to be a decisive force. Rains across the U.S. Corn Belt and Northern Plains slowed soybean and corn harvest progress but improved soil conditions for winter wheat establishment and lifted Mississippi River levels temporarily. The Delta remained under stress from low water levels, threatening barge logistics if rainfall fails to normalize into October. Canada’s Prairies stayed warm, while Brazil awaited consistent rains in Mato Grosso to fully launch soybean planting.

Vegetable oil and protein markets delivered mixed signals. Malaysian palm oil futures hovered in the MYR 4,200–4,500/t range as traders balanced softer near-term demand against strong biodiesel mandates. Indonesia reported a rise in August palm oil exports, with shipments tilting toward China and the EU. In the U.S., August cattle placements fell nearly 10% year-on-year, suggesting reduced feed demand, which added subtle pressure on corn and soymeal consumption outlooks.

Forward acreage shifts also entered the spotlight. S&P Global projected U.S. farmers will reduce corn plantings to 94.5 million acres in 2026 while expanding soybeans to 84 million, a reflection of profitability pressure and trade risks. Wheat acreage is seen edging lower as well, raising questions about U.S. competitiveness in a market still dominated by ample global supplies.

Governance and ESG concerns expanded in scope. Brazil’s soy moratorium drew further scrutiny as environmental authorities gained formal standing in the CADE process, potentially tightening compliance requirements for crushers and traders. Indonesia, meanwhile, broadened its domestic food-aid program to include subsidized cooking oil, a move that could alter palm flows and vegetable oil trade balances in Southeast Asia.

Fundamentals wrapped the session with a clear split across crops. Wheat export commitments are 20% higher year-on-year and at a five-year high for the week, corn commitments sit 68% above last year’s pace and near record levels, while soybeans lag behind seasonal norms despite modest improvement. Managed money trimmed short positions in wheat and corn and turned slightly net long soybeans as of Sept. 16, leaving the market positioned for volatility into the harvest stretch.