Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 kicked off Friday near $5.20¼/bu (down ~1¼¢ from Thursday’s $5.21½ close), with open interest having jumped the prior session and weekly U.S. export sales still subdued ahead of WASDE. Traders are balancing weak recent U.S. sales against a bigger European crop and steady Black Sea competition, keeping early tone cautious.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 opened around $4.20½/bu (up ~¾¢ from Thursday’s $4.19¾ settle) as the market squared positions for USDA’s Crop Production/WASDE. Consensus points to a yield trim toward ~186.2 bpa and output near 16.516 bbu, while U.S. cash corn hovered near $3.75 and open interest rose sharply on Thursday.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 began the session near $10.34¼/bu (up ~¾¢ from Thursday’s $10.33½ close) after front-month beans gained 7–10¢ yesterday. With export commitments off to the smallest new-crop start since 2009/10 and NOPA’s August crush due Monday, the board weighed tighter Canadian canola stocks against heavier Malaysian palm inventories.

Global drivers shaping today’s trade

Egypt quietly accelerated state wheat buying. New agency Mostakbal Misr booked 500–600 k t for September–October from Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, reinforcing the Black Sea’s grip on North African demand just as USDA projects Egypt’s imports at a record 13 MMT this season. FOB competition into the Med stays fierce.

Europe’s wheat balance swelled. Research firm Expana lifted EU soft-wheat output to a record 136.1 MMT for 2025/26, up 3.3 MMT m/m and nearly 20% above last season, while noting sluggish EU exports amid heavy Russian competition and scant Chinese demand—an outlook that raises the bar for EU pricing and logistics through Q4.

Brazil kept the supply taps open. CONAB raised 2024/25 corn to 139.67 MMT and soybeans to 171.5 MMT, while industry voice 3Tentos floated a 180 MMT soy idea and ~140 MMT corn for 2025/26, citing an early start to southern soy planting and improving central rains—signal that Brazil’s swing-supplier role remains entrenched.

Argentina tilted acreage toward corn. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees 7.8 M ha of corn (+9.6% y/y) on optimal moisture, with soy area down to 17.6 M ha. Rosario separately pegs 2025/26 corn at 61 MMT (record potential) and soy at 47 MMT, shifting South America’s coarse-grain balance and product flows ahead of U.S. harvest.

China diversified feed channels. Beijing cleared Brazilian sorghum, with first cargoes possible within ~60 days, even as U.S. sorghum sales to China have collapsed y/y—another nudge redirecting coarse-grain trade and marginally easing China’s dependence on U.S. feed supplies this fall.

U.S. export sales cooled but stayed constructive. For the week ending Sept 4, the U.S. sold 540 k t corn (Mexico lead), 541 k t soybeans (“unknown” lead), and 305 k t wheat (Japan lead). Carry-over bookings lifted cumulative new-crop corn commitments to 22.6 MMT (2nd-largest on record), while soy starts 2025/26 at 9.35 MMT (lowest since 2009/10).

Logistics and weather kept basis in play. Mississippi River grain shipments slipped to 361 k t last week as barge rates climbed, while USDA reported drought coverage rising to 13% of corn and 22% of soybean areas. Near-term forecasts favor a warmer North America, wet EU, and limited Black Sea moisture—mix that speeds U.S. harvest yet complicates river flows.

Veg-oil signals were mixed. Malaysian palm eased to 4,445 MYR/t overnight, even as Indonesia weighed a B45 biodiesel step before B50 and moved to consolidate seized plantations under a state operator—policy currents that could sway SE Asia’s supply profile and Asia-Pacific product spreads into year-end.