Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 opened Tuesday near $5.22¼/bu, about 1½¢ below Monday’s $5.23¾ close, as the complex gave back part of yesterday’s strength while open interest edged higher and registrations were unchanged. Overnight boards had SRW fractionally softer, with HRW and HRS also easing, even as U.S. spring-wheat harvest reached 85% by Sept 7, a tick above normal. Weekly U.S. wheat inspections fell to 425k t (off 47% w/w), though marketing-year shipments since June 1 remain ~10% above last year, leaving sentiment balanced between soft near-term flows and steady seasonal progress.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 started around $4.20½/bu, roughly 1¼¢ under Monday’s $4.21¾ settle, after futures added 3¾¢ on Monday and open interest rose by 2,543 contracts. Crop Progress showed 74% dent, 25% mature, and 4% harvested, with conditions slipping to 68% good/excellent. Export inspections printed 1.443 MMT on the week, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia, while the cmdtyView national cash gauge firmed to $3.77, keeping basis and river logistics in focus into midday.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 began near $10.32¾/bu, about 1¢ below Monday’s $10.33¾ close, after products firmed to start the week (soymeal +$1.00 to +$4.20; soyoil steady to +17). NASS pegged 97% pod-set and 21% dropping leaves with conditions at 64% G/E; inspections were 452k t and Mexico again featured on the destination slate. Chinese NOV ’25 futures were modestly mixed, while Malaysian palm eased overnight, leaving crush spreads and veg-oil relative value in the spotlight.

Global drivers to watch today

China’s consumer backdrop is cooling premium protein demand. USDA-FAS flagged a second straight year of declining beef consumption in 2026 as household budgets tighten, a shift that can ripple into feedgrain and meal use if buyers substitute toward cheaper proteins; even so, imports may edge higher on weaker domestic output. The macro signal underscores how China’s demand mix—not just headline volumes—can steer oilseed and grain flows.

Ukraine’s oilseed pipeline jammed. A new law imposing a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soy—unless sold directly by producers—has halted shipments pending clarity on origin documentation, snarling veg-oil and meal flows just as regional crushers plan autumn runs. Separately, Kyiv plans to raise 2026 winter grain sowings to 5.43m ha, with winter wheat up to 4.78m ha, signaling resilient acreage even amid logistics frictions.

Brazil’s early-season cues turned constructive. AgRural reported soybean planting has started in Paraná (0.02% of area) a touch earlier than last year, while summer corn was 12% planted as of Sept 4 (vs 7% a week prior). CEPEA added that August soybean exports hit 9.33 MMT (monthly record) and that attractive international wheat prices are pulling in imports—mainly from Argentina—highlighting shifting South American trade balances into Q4.

U.S. macro tape flashed a structural headwind. The U.S. agricultural trade deficit widened to a record $33.6B for Jan–Jul as imports climbed and exports slipped, a trend tied to stronger import demand, stiffer competition abroad, and policy frictions that have redirected Chinese buying toward Brazil—context that keeps U.S. FOB competitiveness and the dollar in sharp focus.

Policy scaffolding steadied one pillar: the House voted to extend Federal Grain Inspection Service funding through FY2030, with industry groups stressing that reliable inspection standards help keep U.S. grains and oilseeds competitive even as tariff headwinds rise. The Senate has yet to clear the measure, but the direction is supportive for export credibility and execution.

Black Sea supply signals stayed heavy. Russia reported ~105 MMT of grain harvested to date and maintained a 135 MMT full-season grain target; SovEcon raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat forecast to 86.1 MMT, citing stronger Volga yields and a reshuffle of top producing regions, with Stavropol overtaking Rostov. The combination preserves Russia’s export heft into late-2025 calendars.

Asia’s seed tech and weather were in motion. An Argentine approval allows a Beijing Dabeinong unit to grow GM soybeans locally—another marker of tightening Sino-LatAm ag ties. Meanwhile, heavy rains across East China raise flood risks and could slow spring-crop harvesting, while the EC sub-seasonal outlook kept most of the U.S. Midwest warm/dry through 4 weeks, favorable for harvest pace but a watch-item for river levels and basis.

India’s monsoon arrived generous on balance. Cumulative rainfall is 9% above normal (NW +37%, East/Northeast −20%), bolstering water storage ahead of wheat sowing and underpinning near-term foodgrain supply prospects. In veg-oils, Malaysian palm eased slightly overnight, while Chinese ag boards were mixed (beans/meal softer, soyoil/palm firmer), keeping attention on spreads as biodiesel mandates and disease pressures (e.g., Ganoderma) shape medium-term palm output risks.