Wheat futures flipped higher on Tuesday, extending the tentative rebound seen at the start of the week. Chicago SRW contracts closed 6–7½ cents stronger, with December 2025 CBOT wheat settling at $5.37¾/bu, up 7½ cents on the day. KC HRW futures finished 6–7 cents in the green, while MPLS spring wheat added 4–5 cents. There were no new deliveries issued against December CBOT wheat and only seven against December KC, suggesting limited nearby selling pressure. Support came from renewed geopolitical risk after Russia threatened to cut off Ukraine from the sea if attacks on Russian-linked vessels continue, while CFTC’s delayed Commitment of Traders data showed speculators trimming their net short in CBOT wheat to 108,825 contracts and in KC wheat to 67,271, signaling some short-covering. On the export side, EU wheat shipments since 1 July total 9.66 MMT, 0.48 MMT below last year, even as Algeria tenders for 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat and a South Korean buyer books 65,000 tonnes, underlining steady but unspectacular demand into key importing regions.

Corn futures also firmed, recapturing ground lost earlier in the week. Nearby contracts gained 4–5¼ cents, with December 2025 corn closing at $4.38/bu, up 5¼ cents. The cmdtyView US national average cash corn price moved back up to about $4.04¼/bu, reflecting improved sentiment after Monday’s softer tone. Another 76 deliveries were issued against December futures overnight as the market rolls away from the expiring contract. Like wheat, corn drew some support from Russia’s threat to disrupt Ukrainian maritime exports, which would tighten Black Sea-origin availability if realized. CFTC data for the week of 21 October showed managed money funds cutting their net short by 30,070 contracts to 160,985, while commercial users added shorts and expanded their net short to 50,863 contracts, a positioning shift that leaves room for further short-covering if fundamentals improve. Traders now look to EIA data for the week ending 28 November to see whether ethanol output held near recent near-record levels through the US holiday period.

Soybeans, by contrast, eased slightly after their recent strength. Futures ended Tuesday modestly lower, with most contracts down 2–3¼ cents and January 2026 soybeans settling at $11.24¾/bu, 3¼ cents weaker on the day. The US national average cash soybean price slipped 3¾ cents to about $10.54¾/bu, while soymeal futures fell $1.30–$3.00 and soyoil rallied again, adding 29–35 points and reinforcing the outperformance of the oil leg within the oilseed complex. There were no deliveries issued against December soybean meal overnight, but 123 were registered for soyoil, underscoring active commercial use of the oil contract. CFTC’s latest report showed funds increasing their net long in soybeans to 35,329 contracts by adding 37,720 longs, mainly via short-covering, even as EU soybean imports between 1 July and 30 November reached only 4.97 MMT, 0.78 MMT below last year, highlighting a still-fragile import demand picture outside China.

Global Market Drivers and Key Headlines

Across the broader futures landscape, Tuesday’s session again showcased a split market: cereals remain heavy while oilseeds, especially soyoil and palm, retain a stronger tone. Week-to-date, wheat is still modestly lower in SRW and HRW, corn is down 2 cents, and soybeans are off 2½ cents, but on a year-to-date basis nearby SRW wheat is down 3.9%, HRW 7.6% and corn 5.3%, versus gains of 13.7% in soybeans, 1.1% in soymeal and 30.9% in soyoil. Chinese January 2026 futures mirrored this pattern, with soybeans and soyoil higher, corn slightly firmer and palm oil up, while Malaysian palm oil itself jumped 63 ringgit overnight to around 4,157 ringgit per tonne, adding to the support under the veg-oil complex. Open-interest shifts reinforced the impression of an evolving positioning landscape: SRW and HRW wheat OI rose by 4,768 and 2,722 contracts respectively, while corn, soybeans and soymeal saw net reductions, suggesting some risk being taken off in grains even as speculative interest stays anchored in oilseeds.

Weather remained a central driver of risk premia, with a sharp North–South contrast. In North America, northern US winter wheat areas are experiencing winterkill-level temperatures, but ample snow cover should protect the crop, while the Northern and Central/Southern Plains oscillate between below-normal temperatures and scattered showers as December begins. In South America, hailstorms across the Pampas in recent days have raised concerns about localized damage to mature Argentine wheat just as harvest advances, even as the broader outlook calls for dry conditions across central and southern Pampas through Friday and rising temperatures later in the week. Brazil continues to see a split pattern: heavy rains across central regions such as Mato Grosso and Goiás, with scattered showers forecast Tuesday–Friday and near-normal temperatures, contrast with relatively drier conditions in southern states like Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, where only scattered showers are expected, reinforcing the patchy moisture picture that will be critical for both soybean and corn yield potential.

On the demand and logistics front, US export data painted a mixed but broadly constructive picture. Weekly inspections to 27 November showed corn exports at 1.421 MMT, down from 1.696 MMT the prior week but well above the 949,000 tonnes recorded a year ago. Soybean inspections reached 920,000 tonnes, up from 809,000 tonnes the week before but still sharply below the 2.11 MMT shipped in the same week of 2024, with Italy accounting for 202,000 tonnes and Egypt and Mexico also prominent destinations. Wheat inspections totaled 385,000 tonnes, down from 480,000 tonnes the previous week but up on last year’s 299,000 tonnes, with Vietnam leading as the key wheat buyer. Complementary export-sales data for the week ending 23 October confirmed Mexico as the top buyer of both soybeans (233,000 tonnes) and corn (798,000 tonnes), while US pork and beef sales showed Mexico again dominating pork purchases at 21,600 tonnes and Japan leading in beef, underlining Mexico’s role as a central demand hub across both grain and meat supply chains.

South American fundamentals remained in sharp focus as the market weighed record-level production potential against increasingly uneven weather. In Brazil, AgRural estimates soybean planting at 89% of intended area as of 27 November, up from 81% a week earlier but slightly behind last year’s 91%, while summer corn planting in the Center–South has reached 99%, ahead of both last week and last year. Agribusiness consultancy Pátria Agronegócios nudged its 2025/26 soybean production forecast up to 171.89 MMT, 0.2% above mid-November and 1.4% higher than 2024/25, with planted area projected at 48.58 million hectares—0.9% above the previous estimate but marking the smallest percentage area growth in decades, as climate irregularities temper farmer expansion. StoneX, by contrast, trimmed its soybean outlook to 177.2 MMT, 0.9% below its prior forecast, citing productivity cuts in key states Mato Grosso and Goiás, and lowered its total corn forecast to 134.4 MMT, with the second-crop corn estimate reduced to 105.8 MMT amid concerns that delayed soy cycles will constrain the safrinha planting window.

The Black Sea and wider Eurasian region continued to deliver important supply and policy signals. Ukraine’s agricultural exports rose 12% month-on-month in November to about 5 MMT, driven mostly by larger grain shipments, including 3 MMT of grain versus 2.7 MMT in October and 2.4 MMT in September. Nonetheless, total grain exports so far in the 2025/26 July–June season stand at 12.38 MMT, well below the 17.98 MMT shipped in the same period last season, underscoring ongoing logistical constraints and capacity limits. Looking ahead, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister estimates the 2026 wheat crop at 24–25 MMT, up from 23 MMT in 2025, with winter wheat already sown on 4.7 million hectares out of 6.43 million hectares of winter crops, and authorities reiterating that no wheat export restrictions are planned given the higher output and slower start to current-season exports. In Russia, Argus now sees 2026/27 wheat output at 86.5 MMT, slightly below the 88.4 MMT estimated for 2025/26 but in line with the five-year average, with good soil moisture even in previously drought-hit regions like Rostov and parts of Krasnodar and a modest shift of area toward more profitable oilseeds, keeping Russia firmly anchored as a cornerstone exporter in global wheat balances.

Beyond crops, broader structural shifts in Russia’s agri-business sector also grabbed attention. Russia’s second-largest bank, VTB, plans to assemble a large agricultural holding from nationalized assets in the south, consolidating them under Agrocomplex Labinski. The company controls about 240,000 hectares dedicated to grains, milk, sugar and other products and already exports up to 400,000 tonnes of grains and oilseeds annually. VTB’s CEO has flagged a strategic focus on higher value-added processing, including grain processing, and suggested the holding could eventually be sold. For global markets, such consolidation could further professionalize Russian grain production and export logistics, potentially increasing the reliability and scale of Russian-origin flows even as geopolitical risk in the region remains elevated.

In the Southern Cone, Paraguay added its own nuance to the oilseed outlook. Export group Capeco expects the start of the first 2026 soybean harvest to be delayed by several weeks into the second half of January after cool weather shortly after planting slowed crop development, though overall production from the two annual soy crops is still seen broadly in line with the roughly 10 MMT harvested in 2025. Soil moisture is generally adequate despite some areas needing rain, and earlier-planted soy that benefited from September–October rains is now entering a critical growth phase. A delayed first harvest, however, would compress the window for a second soy crop or a switch to corn, potentially trimming overall output or altering crop rotations. On the logistics side, water levels on the Paraguay and Paraná rivers—key export arteries—are currently higher than anticipated, facilitating barge traffic and limiting near-term transport bottlenecks that might otherwise have constrained export flows.

Wheat markets also digested signals from South America’s major exporter to Brazil. In Argentina, the Bolsa de Cereales projects a record 25.5 MMT wheat crop for 2025/26, 1.5 MMT above previous estimates and comfortably above the prior record of 22.4 MMT in 2021/22, creating the prospect of abundant export supply into the Brazilian market. Brazilian domestic prices have already responded to this combination of high Argentine production and a slightly weaker dollar against the real. According to Cepea, November wheat prices in Paraná averaged BRL 1,196.69/t, the lowest since October 2023 and down 1.6% on the month and 15.9% year-on-year in real terms. In Rio Grande do Sul, prices averaged BRL 1,044.82/t, the lowest since February 2018 and down 8.2% month-on-month and 17.1% year-on-year, while São Paulo saw a modest monthly gain but a 23.8% annual decline. These moves underscore how regional oversupply and currency shifts are transmitting global wheat abundance directly into key southern hemisphere consumer markets.

Livestock and protein-sector headlines added an indirect but meaningful layer to grain and oilseed sentiment. The USDA’s latest slaughter report showed US commercial red meat output in October down 2.6% year-on-year to 4.89 billion pounds, with beef production falling 5.7% and pork edging 0.3% higher, a combination that reflects tight cattle supplies and relatively stable hog numbers. In Europe, Spain—one of the world’s major pork exporters—confirmed African swine fever in two wild boar near Barcelona and temporarily halted pork exports to China as a precaution. Beijing has now agreed that Spain can resume shipments from unaffected regions under a regionalization protocol, preserving access to a market that accounts for 42% of Spanish pork exports outside the EU and underpins a €3.5 billion export industry. Authorities have deployed police, rural wardens and 117 military personnel to enforce a 6-km exclusion zone and prevent spread, using drones to locate potentially infected animals. While not yet a direct grain demand shock, these developments highlight how disease risks and shifting trade rules in the protein sector can quickly alter feed-grain and oilseed demand trajectories, a factor traders will continue to watch into 2026.