Chicago wheat started Wednesday’s session with the December 2025 CBOT contract trading around $5.37¾ per bushel, fractionally higher after closing up 7½ cents on Tuesday. That bounce came alongside a sharp rise in open interest in both Chicago and Kansas City, pointing to fresh buying interest in the wheat complex. The tone early Wednesday is slightly softer to mixed, but underpinned by geopolitical support as traders continue to monitor Russian threats to restrict Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks on Russian-linked vessels persist, a factor that keeps risk premium alive in global wheat prices.

Corn futures in Chicago began Wednesday with the December 2025 contract near $4.38 per bushel, giving back a couple of cents after gaining 5¼ cents in the previous session. Open interest jumped by more than 16,000 contracts on Tuesday, with March futures leading the new buying, suggesting fresh speculative participation rather than just short covering. The national US cash corn average nudged back above $4.04, helped by the firmer board, while support also comes from the same Black Sea tensions that are lifting wheat, as any escalation in the region could ripple through corn export flows as well.

Soybeans are starting Wednesday’s trade in a quiet fashion, with the January 2026 CBOT contract hovering around $11.24¾ per bushel, within a penny of unchanged after slipping 2 to 3¼ cents on Tuesday. The national cash bean average eased to just above $10.54¾, while soymeal futures sagged and soyoil pushed higher, highlighting the mixed tone across the soy complex. Managed money has recently added significantly to net long positions in soybeans, mainly by cutting shorts, but daily USDA flash sales have been limited, leaving the market focused on upcoming US shipments to China and South American weather as the main near-term demand and supply drivers.

Global futures, spreads and fund positioning are setting a nuanced tone for this week’s trading session. Overnight, Chicago wheat was marginally weaker, corn slipped a couple of cents and soybeans were fractionally higher, while on a weekly basis wheat is still slightly firmer in SRW and HRW, corn is barely positive and soybeans are lower. Year to date, nearby futures remain under pressure in wheat and corn but are notably higher in soybeans and sharply higher in soyoil, reflecting stronger demand in the vegetable oil complex. Chinese agricultural futures are also firmer in corn and soybeans, and Malaysian palm oil, though slightly lower overnight, is trading near multi-month lows amid heavy stocks, all of which shape risk appetite across global grains and oilseeds.

Weather is another key driver, with a powerful cold air outbreak gripping the US and expected to persist into mid-December. In the Northern Plains and Midwest, successive systems are reinforcing very cold temperatures and generating frequent snow, which could stress logistics but also help build soil moisture reserves. Winter wheat areas in the northern US are expected to see winterkill-level temperatures, but ample snow cover should protect the crop, while the Central and Southern Plains face alternating shots of cold air and scattered showers before a brief warming period next week. In the Delta, recent rain and snow upstream have modestly helped Mississippi River levels, yet forecasts for limited heavy precipitation suggest that water levels may resume a slow decline, keeping barge freight and export logistics in focus for the grain market.

In South America, the spotlight remains firmly on Brazil and Argentina as their corn and soybean crops move through early development stages. Central Brazil is still struggling with a lack of significant soil moisture, and while a stalled frontal system is forecast to bring better rains this week, traders are waiting for confirmation that these showers actually materialize over key soybean areas where some fields are already flowering. Farther south in Brazil, soil moisture is currently adequate but the reduced frequency of rainfall has started a slow drying trend that could become more problematic if it persists into late December. Argentina, meanwhile, has seen pockets of heavy rain sandwiched between lengthy dry spells, creating highly variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans and adding another layer of yield uncertainty for global balance sheets.

On the supply side, the latest US Grains & BioProducts Council harvest quality report projects the 2025–26 US corn crop at a record 425.53 million tons, with an all-time-high average yield near 186 bushels per acre. Beyond sheer size, the report highlights excellent quality, including the lowest incidence of broken corn and foreign material in the 15-year history of the survey, based on more than 600 samples from major producing states. Such a large, high-quality crop reinforces the notion of abundant exportable US supply, putting pressure on competitors but also increasing the importance of trade policy, freight costs and currency moves in determining how much of that corn actually moves into global channels this season.

Canada is also expected to add to world grain availability, with analysts surveyed ahead of the upcoming Statistics Canada report looking for 2025 wheat production around 38 million tons, roughly 5.7% above last season. Canola output is seen rising even faster, by more than 10% to about 21.3 million tons, helped by better yields and acreage. If confirmed, these larger Canadian wheat and canola crops would complement the strong US corn outlook, bolstering exportable supplies from North America and adding another source of competition for European, Black Sea and Australian exporters across key wheat and vegoil-importing regions.

Trade flows centered on China are another major pillar of this week’s market narrative. After months of subdued activity following tariff tensions, at least six US soybean cargoes are scheduled to load at Gulf Coast terminals for China through mid-December, with a seventh vessel already en route, marking the first such shipment since May. Chinese buyers recently booked nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year, and sorghum shipments to China have restarted as well, though total volumes still lag pre-trade-war levels. At the same time, Russia continues to deepen its agricultural export footprint in China and the Middle East, dramatically increasing shipments of frozen fish, rapeseed oil, peas, sunflower oil and wheat, while also expanding exports of meat and a broad range of processed foods, underscoring intensifying competition in key grain and oilseed destinations.

Policy support and farmer sentiment in the US add another dimension to the outlook. The Trump administration is preparing to unveil a new relief package for farmers hit by low prices and trade disruptions, framed as a bridge payment to stabilize farm income after a challenging year for many rural communities. At the same time, the Purdue University/CME Group agricultural sentiment index climbed to 139 in November, its highest level since June, driven in part by firmer crop prices and a more optimistic view of export prospects, even as current conditions edged slightly lower. Stronger sentiment and incoming aid could influence producers’ selling and hedging behavior, potentially slowing farmer selling on breaks and shaping acreage decisions for the next planting cycle.

Black Sea and European fundamentals remain crucial for wheat, with Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat production forecast steady at around 22.8 million tons, supported by generally favorable planting weather and adequate moisture across most regions, even as some eastern areas retain deficits. Europe continues to enjoy mostly good conditions for winter wheat as crops move toward dormancy, although parts of Spain welcome additional rainfall. In contrast, southwestern Russia still faces lingering moisture shortages despite recent systems brushing Ukraine and northwestern Russia, and above-normal temperatures have slowed the onset of full dormancy, leaving some fields more exposed to potential cold snaps later in the season. These regional contrasts, combined with ongoing Black Sea geopolitical risks, keep the global wheat balance sheet finely poised.

Finally, the vegetable oil complex is sending a clear signal of ample supply risks. Malaysian palm oil inventories are projected to have climbed nearly 8% month on month in November to their highest level since 2019, as record November production met a sharp slowdown in exports. Crude palm oil output is still hovering around 2 million tons per month, supported by favorable weather, improved labor availability and higher-yielding plantations, while exports slipped nearly 15%, creating a strong headwind for prices unless overseas demand rebounds. With soyoil futures already significantly higher on the year and Malaysian palm oil facing heavy stocks, global oilseed markets are paying close attention to whether palm exports can recover and how this will feed back into crush margins and soybean demand in the months ahead.