Prices at the Start of Trading – Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Wheat (CBOT Sep 2025): $5.38/bushel, down 1½ cents at the start of the session

The wheat market continues to move in mixed directions, with Chicago trading opening slightly weaker. U.S. winter wheat is now 63% harvested, while spring wheat is 78% headed, with improved crop conditions in northern states. Russia has harvested only 11 million tons so far—well below 2024 levels—which is adding pressure to the global market. Meanwhile, Taiwan purchased nearly 90,000 tons of wheat from the U.S., and Algeria around 1 million tons from other sources. France also reports higher ending stocks compared to last year.

Corn (CBOT Sep 2025): $4.01¼/bushel, up 4¼ cents at the start of the day

Corn futures opened the day higher, supported by expectations for rainfall across the Corn Belt in the coming week. According to Crop Progress data, crop ratings improved in some states (Missouri, Nebraska), while others reported declines. Brazil raised its corn export forecast for July to 4.6 million tons, surpassing last year’s figures. Market participants are also watching the EIA's weekly ethanol report.

Soybeans (CBOT Aug 2025): $9.95/bushel, up 9 cents at the open

The soybean market opened with solid gains, despite a slight decline in the previous session. According to NOPA, U.S. soybean crush in June reached 185.7 million bushels—a monthly record that exceeded expectations. This was accompanied by a drop in soybean oil stocks to a five-month low. Brazil raised its July soybean export forecast to 12.19 million tons. Improved weather and stronger crop ratings in states like Illinois and Minnesota also contributed to the positive tone.

Global Events Influencing the Grain Markets

Brazilian meatpackers are reconsidering their shipments to the U.S. after President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on beef imports. This has led to a partial halt in production and a slump in the country’s cattle market. The U.S. is Brazil’s second most important beef export market, and any disruption in meat trade could affect feed demand, including for soybeans and corn.

According to the latest NOPA data, U.S. soybean crush in June exceeded expectations and set a record for the month, reaching 185.7 million bushels. This signals strong domestic demand but also reveals underutilized crush capacity due to an oversupply of soymeal. Soybean oil stocks declined by nearly 16% year-over-year, lending support to prices.

Amid active harvesting and dry conditions in Ukraine, the wheat production forecast remains steady at 20.7 million tons. Yields are good in southern regions, but drought is raising concerns, particularly for corn, whose forecast was reduced to 27.2 million tons due to deteriorating crop conditions in Central and Eastern Ukraine. NDVI vegetation indices show below-normal readings in key areas.

Russia’s wheat harvest is seriously lagging, with only 11 million tons harvested by July 11—a 56% drop compared to the same period last year. The cause is ongoing drought in southern regions like Rostov and Krasnodar. Lower yields in the world’s largest wheat exporter are lifting global price pressure.

The European Union reports a sharp decline in soft wheat exports at the start of the new season. As of July 13, only 246,000 tons were exported compared to 1.1 million tons a year earlier. Corn and soybean imports have also declined, indicating a slowdown in trade and possibly weak internal demand or logistical challenges.

Egypt is preparing a new commodity exchange, led by a military-affiliated agency, following a dramatic drop in government wheat imports—down over 57% in the first half of 2025. The aim is to stabilize prices and ensure a consistent domestic supply, although some traders report they have not yet been contacted for registration.

Kazakhstan has raised its wheat production forecast to 16.6 million tons following favorable weather and increased yields in northern regions. Satellite data shows vegetation indices above the long-term average, lifting the national yield forecast to 1.30 tons/ha.

Weather forecasts show mixed conditions across key grain-producing regions. The U.S. and Canada expect rain in parts of the Northern Plains and Midwest, which could be critical for corn and soybean development. In Europe, parts of Central and Eastern regions remain under wet conditions, while Northeastern Europe and Scandinavia are expected to stay dry—potentially harming wheat yields.