Crop Market Recap – Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Wheat

Chicago September 2025 wheat futures closed Tuesday at $5.38 per bushel, down 3 1/2 cents from the previous session. Market sentiment remained pressured by soft U.S. export inspections—just 440,000 tons were inspected for the week ending July 10, down from 622,000 tons a year ago. Spring wheat conditions improved nationally to 54% good-to-excellent, with the Brugler500 index gaining 8 points, driven by notable gains in Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota. However, geopolitical concerns continued to dominate, especially after Russia’s IKAR consultancy lowered its wheat crop forecast to 84 MMT and trimmed its export estimate to 42 MMT due to southern drought. Additionally, Algeria reportedly purchased around 1 MMT of wheat, adding a bullish undertone to international demand.

Corn

Corn ended Tuesday in positive territory, with September 2025 futures closing at $4.01 1/4 per bushel, up 1 1/4 cents. The USDA maintained the crop condition rating at 74% good-to-excellent. While some states saw slight declines (e.g., Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio), gains in Missouri and North Dakota helped offset the drop. Brazil's corn exports are forecast to rise to 4.3 MMT in July, according to ANEC, significantly above last year's 3.55 MMT. Despite ongoing harvest delays in Brazil, NOAA’s 7-day precipitation outlook predicting 1–3 inches of rainfall across much of the U.S. Corn Belt provides optimism for crop development. Ethanol production updates from the EIA are due today and may impact near-term demand sentiment.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for August 2025 slipped on Tuesday, settling at $9.95 per bushel, down 6 cents. The USDA raised crop condition ratings to 70% good-to-excellent, with major improvements seen in Illinois (+15), Missouri (+10), and North Dakota (+6). However, weak export inspections—only 147,000 tons versus 400,000 the week prior—added bearish pressure. On a brighter note, NOPA reported June crush volumes of 185.7 mbu, a record for the month and higher than expected. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.366 billion pounds. Meanwhile, Brazil's export outlook for July rose to 12.19 MMT. A potentially game-changing development came Tuesday as President Trump announced a preliminary trade agreement with Indonesia, including commitments for $4.5 billion in agricultural product purchases.

Global Drivers Reshaping the Grain Market

Morocco is returning to U.S. hard wheat after years of absence, spurred by a $50/ton cost advantage, favorable exchange rates, and duty-free terms. A first shipment of 100,000 tons from Louisiana is expected this month, and imports could reach 500,000–600,000 tons this season. The grain’s high protein and low humidity levels make it ideal for blending with other soft wheat varieties.

France’s agriculture ministry projects a 27% year-over-year increase in soft wheat output, reaching 32.6 MMT in 2025. Barley and rapeseed yields are also forecast to grow, driven by favorable weather and expanded acreage. The rebound places France’s production above the five-year average and could add downward pressure on European wheat prices.

Russia’s wheat sector is facing mounting difficulties. The top wheat-producing region of Rostov is expected to see its lowest harvest since 2015. Drought has slashed overall grain production forecasts to 130.3 MMT, prompting IKAR to revise export projections downward. This compounds uncertainty in Black Sea supply flows already strained by geopolitics.

Brazil’s wheat output is forecast to decline to 7.81 MMT, a 0.9% decrease year-over-year, despite productivity gains. The planted area is projected to shrink by 16.5%. Domestic prices are under pressure due to falling global benchmarks and a weakening Brazilian real, which is also affecting competitiveness.

Argentina’s government raised domestic biofuel prices again in July to support ethanol and biodiesel producers amid inflation and currency instability. Corn- and sugarcane-based ethanol prices were increased modestly, while biodiesel saw a larger jump. The policy shift could influence grain demand dynamics domestically.

China’s Q2 pork production rose 1.4% year-on-year to 14.18 MMT, driven by heavier pigs and better efficiency. However, subdued domestic demand and soft pork prices (now below 15 yuan/kg) are affecting margins. With a pig herd exceeding 424 million heads, feed demand could weaken if price and consumption trends continue.

Export data confirmed lackluster U.S. grain shipments. Corn inspections totaled 1.287 MMT (down from 1.564 MMT), wheat reached just 440k tons, and soybeans fell sharply to 147k tons. Mexico remained the top destination for all three commodities, emphasizing North America’s tight trade integration amid policy uncertainty.

Weather patterns remain mixed. Heavy rains across Argentina’s Pampas region offer crop development support, while Southern Brazil remains dry—raising concern for late corn and wheat stages. In Europe, Eastern regions are cooler and wetter, whereas Western Europe, including France and Germany, continues to suffer from heat and drought, threatening grain yields during crucial growth phases.