Unpredictable weather, competitive trade dynamics, and shifting production forecasts are reshaping the grain markets this week. From Romania’s rise as Europe’s top exporter to policy tensions across North America, here is what’s shaping today's trading session.
Wheat – Chicago (September 2025): $5.53 ¾ per bushel
Wheat markets began the week with modest gains, supported by tightening global availability and slow Russian exports. Russia’s harvest delays, driven by cool weather and logistics bottlenecks at Black Sea ports, continue to disrupt flows and push demurrage costs higher. At the same time, the USDA’s July report offered mixed signals—global wheat output was revised downward due to production declines in Ukraine, Canada, and Iran, while ending stocks were cut to 261.5 million tons. On the bullish side, Romania has overtaken France as the EU’s leading grain exporter, delivering over 5.48 million tonnes of soft wheat. Meanwhile, Paris wheat rebounded above €200 per ton, helped by a weaker euro and fund short-covering, adding 4.50 €/t to close Friday at €201.25/t.
Corn – Chicago (September 2025): $4.01 ¾ per bushel
Corn opened higher, buoyed by planting delays in the U.S. and firm export demand. Although the Midwest saw scattered rainfall over the weekend, the Northern Plains are set for another active week of thunderstorms. In Brazil, corn output was revised up to 132.3 million tons for 2024/25, though exports for July were pegged lower at 4.34 million tons, reflecting internal stock adjustments. In the U.S., USDA’s forecast cut corn production by 75 million bushels, citing both lower acreage and weather-related challenges. On the trade front, the suspension of the U.S.-Mexico tomato agreement could spark wider disruptions, with corn refiners warning of regional food inflation and market uncertainty.
Soybeans – Chicago (September 2025): $10.22 ¾ per bushel
Soybean futures firmed slightly, boosted by improving crush margins and favorable trade data. The USDA’s July outlook trimmed U.S. soybean production by 7 million bushels, reflecting acreage revisions. China, facing domestic flooding in some regions and drought in others, remains active in securing oilseed shipments, although soybean demand is showing signs of strain due to short shelf life and logistical disruptions. Brazil’s July exports are expected to hit 11.93 million tons—far above last year’s levels. Additionally, Argentina’s soybean harvest is nearly complete, with a forecast of 50.2 million tons and soymeal exports reaching 2.19 million tons.
Macroeconomic and Policy Headlines Reshape Global Grain Dynamics
Romania has officially become the EU’s top grain exporter for the 2024/25 season, surpassing France and securing a pivotal role in European supply chains. With over 5.48 million tonnes of wheat, 2.07 million tonnes of barley, and 1.23 million tonnes of corn already shipped, the nation’s robust logistical infrastructure, including expanded river and port networks, is proving vital amid tight global supplies.
Meanwhile, Russia’s grain logistics continue to strain under delayed harvesting and port congestion. Exporters face increasing demurrage fees as ships are forced to wait for cargo that is either delayed or withheld, tightening wheat availability globally. These conditions, alongside a firming rouble and rising internal prices, threaten to limit Russia’s dominance in Black Sea exports.
On the U.S. front, weather remains the dominant market force. The Northern Plains are bracing for more rain and possible severe weather, affecting corn and soybean development. Despite intermittent showers in the Midwest, soil moisture remains a concern for large areas entering critical pollination stages.
The USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) sent mixed signals: global wheat stocks are down, while consumption is revised slightly upward. Corn production is also under pressure due to drought in parts of the U.S., while soybean carryout remains stable thanks to Brazilian abundance.
The Corn Refiners Association, along with 30 other organizations, is urging the U.S. government not to terminate the tomato suspension agreement with Mexico. The move could prompt wider regional food inflation and disrupt established North American trade flows, indirectly impacting corn-derived products and export logistics.
In China, soybean futures rose 18 yuan as the country contends with extreme weather across major agricultural regions. Drought in southern provinces like Guangxi is threatening oilseed and corn crops, while flooding in the north disrupts transport networks and shortens shelf life for imported goods.
COFCO International is changing the game in grain logistics with the launch of its Danube River barge fleet in Romania. With nine inland silos now connected directly to the Port of Constanța, this infrastructure leap offers a scalable, sustainable logistics model that bypasses congested roads and railways. Each barge replaces up to 70 trucks, signaling a strategic shift in regional grain transport.
Market sentiment is also being swayed by the European Commission’s proposal to introduce import quotas on Ukrainian wheat in 2025/26. If passed, this protectionist measure would hinder Ukraine’s recovery in export volumes just as it rebuilds capacity after years of war and erratic weather. Ukrainian sunflower and corn crops, while mostly in good condition, are showing early signs of stress, such as leaf yellowing, particularly in southern oblasts.