Grain Highlights 17.11.2024

Safras & Mercado raised their forecast for Brazil’s corn production in 2024/25 by 1 million tons to 134.8 million tons, a 7% increase over 2023/24.

- SovEcon forecasts a wheat production in Russia for 2025 at 81.6 million tons (compared to 80.1 in the previous estimate). The winter wheat production is expected to rise by 1.5 million tons to 54.3 million tons, while the spring wheat production remains unchanged at 27.3 million tons. Winter wheat acreage will be 15.43 million hectares (15.39), with an average yield of 3.52 tons/hectare (3.43). For 2024, the wheat production is estimated at 81.4 million tons (81.5), corn production at 11.5 million tons (12.2), and barley production at 16.5 million tons.

- Between July 1 and November 15, 2024, Ukraine exported 16.255 million tons of grain (compared to 10.968 million a year earlier), including 1.856 million tons in November (1.728). Exports included 8.289 million tons of wheat (5.225), 1.737 million tons of barley (0.749), and 5.945 million tons of corn (4.865).

- As of November 14, 2024, Ukraine harvested 71.4 million tons of grain and oilseeds, including 52.1 million tons of grains and 19.2 million tons of oilseeds. Sunseed has been harvested on 97% of the acreage, yielding 9.96 million tons at an average yield of 2.09 tons/hectare. Soybeans were harvested on 98% of the acreage, yielding 5.9 million tons at an average yield of 2.27 tons/hectare. Corn was harvested on 88% of the areas, yielding 22.348 million tons at an average yield of 6.27 tons/hectare. The potential corn production is estimated at 25.5–26 million tons and sunseed production is projected at 10.3 million tons.

- According to FranceAgriMer, France's soft wheat exports to non-EU countries are expected to be 3.9 million tons (4 in the previous estimate and -62% compared to last year). The decline is due to Algeria’s absence as a client. Sales of soft wheat within the EU amounted to 5.93 million tons (5.90, -6.3%). Ending stocks for the current season were 2.78 million tons (5.251, -12%). Corn ending stocks were revised down to 2.36 million tons (2.44, -18%), and barley ending stocks are estimated at 1.36 million tons (1.35, -7%).

- Data from the Canadian Grain Commission shows that as of November 10, 2024, Canada exported 5.48 million tons of soft wheat (5.51 a year earlier), 1.02 million tons of durum (0.717), 0.654 million tons of barley (0.592), 3.37 million tons of canola (1.65), and 1.48 million tons of soybeans (0.867). Total exports of all crops reached 14.29 million tons (11.1).

- Safras & Mercado raised their forecast for Brazil’s corn production in 2024/25 by 1 million tons to 134.8 million tons, a 7% increase over 2023/24. The second corn crop areas are expected to increase by 4.3% to 15.34 million hectares. The second corn production is projected at 96.33 million tons (94.64, +10%).

- According to FAS USDA, China's soybean production in 2024/25 will reach 19.9 million tons, with acreage at 9.95 million hectares and imports at 104 million tons. Beginning stocks will total 36.4 million tons (31.8 last year). Soybean processing is projected at 99 million tons, while soybean meal consumption is expected to reach 102.7 million tons (101.3). Brazil will remain the largest supplier with 77.3 million tons, followed by the United States with 21 million tons.

- On November 13, 2024, Algeria canceled its tender for the purchase of 240,000 tons of feed corn. A new tender was announced for corn purchases from Argentina and Brazil, with delivery scheduled between December 1–15.