Global fertilizer disruption tied to the Hormuz Strait and active export demand collide with mixed weather signals, keeping grain markets balanced between supply pressure and emerging risk premiums.
The grain complex opens Thursday with a mixed tone, as wheat extends gains while corn and soybeans soften slightly after strong midweek rallies. Traders are focused on today’s USDA export sales report, ongoing fertilizer supply uncertainty, and shifting weather patterns across the US and South America that continue to influence near-term direction.
Fertilizer markets remain a central macro driver as the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatens global nutrient flows, with the UN awaiting political approval to establish a corridor for shipments. The risk of a prolonged supply squeeze could push fertilizer prices significantly higher, raising global production costs and potentially tightening future supply, a structurally supportive factor for all grains, particularly corn which is input-intensive.
Export demand remains a key supportive pillar, with traders awaiting USDA weekly sales data expected to show solid corn demand between 0.9 and 1.7 MMT and moderate soybean and wheat activity. Strong multi-market demand signals underlying resilience in global consumption, particularly for corn, which continues to benefit from broad international buying interest.
Argentina’s corn export surge continues to reinforce global supply pressure, with shipments reaching record levels of 12.3 MMT across March and April. The large harvest and aggressive selling pace increase competition in global markets, capping upside potential for corn prices despite firm demand signals.
Brazilian export projections further add to the supply-heavy backdrop, with soybean shipments for April seen at 16.67 MMT and soymeal at 3.10 MMT. This reinforces South America’s dominance in global oilseed flows, limiting upside for soybean prices even as demand remains steady.
Weather remains a two-sided driver, with dryness persisting in key US winter wheat areas of the Central Plains while broader precipitation patterns remain uneven across the Midwest and Delta. This introduces localized production risks for wheat while maintaining overall uncertainty for corn and soybean planting progress.
In South America, dry conditions across Brazil’s central growing regions are supporting harvest progress but raising concerns for second crop (safrinha) corn development as pollination approaches. Meanwhile, excessive rainfall in Argentina is delaying harvest operations, tightening near-term supply flows but not altering the broader bearish production outlook.
Global wheat supply signals remain mixed but slightly supportive, with Canadian production projected to decline year-on-year and EU/UK output revised marginally higher under favorable conditions. Stable outlooks in Ukraine and India further reinforce a balanced global supply picture, limiting strong directional moves in wheat while keeping a modest risk premium in place.
Biofuel-linked demand remains supportive for soybeans, with NOPA reporting a strong March crush of 226.16 million bushels, though below expectations. Lower-than-forecast soybean oil stocks provide a constructive signal for the complex, even as overall crush capacity continues to expand and cap more aggressive upside.
China’s protein sector continues to signal soft demand, with rising pork production and weak prices highlighting ongoing oversupply. This could temper feed demand growth for soybeans and corn in the near term, acting as a mild bearish factor for the demand outlook.
Wheat
May ’26 CBOT SRW wheat closed Wednesday at $5.93 3/4/bu, up 1 3/4 cents, and is trading up 5 3/4 cents at the start of Thursday. Gains are supported by ongoing dryness concerns in key US winter wheat areas and active global tender demand, including purchases from Taiwan and Algeria, while stable global production outlooks continue to cap stronger upside.
Corn
May ’26 CBOT corn closed Wednesday at $4.51 1/4/bu, up 8 1/4 cents, and is trading down 1 cent early Thursday. The market is balancing strong export expectations and firm ethanol production data against heavy South American supply and record Argentine export flows, leaving prices steady to slightly weaker at the open.
Soybeans
May ’26 CBOT soybeans closed Wednesday at $11.67/bu, up 9 cents, and are trading down 2 1/4 cents Thursday morning. Support from strong crush data and tightening soybean oil stocks is being offset by large Brazilian export flows and softer demand signals from China, keeping the market under mild pressure at the start of the session.