From Wednesday to Friday, the market revolved around E15, the final RVO mandates, export sales and the March planting intentions, while dry Plains conditions and Russian fertilizer risks kept wheat the best supported.

Last week, the grain complex moved out of Monday’s risk-off shock and finished with a more mixed but still sensitive tone. The market reacted most strongly to moves in energy, biofuels, export data and weather, with Wednesday through Friday ultimately setting the direction into the weekly close.

The start of the week was under pressure from lower crude oil prices and broader macro concerns linked to a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East. This weighed most on corn and soybeans, where the energy linkage and biofuel channel are more direct. By Tuesday, the market began to stabilize as dry Plains weather, a tighter wheat outlook and new tenders brought some support back.

Wednesday was the biofuels day. The EPA announced an E15 waiver starting May 1, ethanol production remained steady, and stocks increased without disrupting the market. This was clearly supportive for corn and soybean oil, and the market began to price in that final Renewable Fuel Standard decisions could provide further support to feedstock demand.

Thursday brought clearer confirmation that demand had not disappeared. Wheat, corn and soybeans all posted strong weekly export sales, with wheat receiving an additional boost from a large Algerian tender. In soybeans, Chinese demand and strong meal helped keep the market stable, even as focus shifted toward the upcoming March acreage data.

Friday added fresh policy support but also a typical sell-the-fact reaction in soybeans. The White House promised actions to support farmers, while the EPA finalized RVO mandates for 2026–27 above initial proposals. The 2028 decision, which gives foreign feedstocks only 50% of the RIN value, is structurally bullish for U.S. biofuels, but in the short term the market had already partially priced in this development.

The fertilizer and logistics backdrop remained important for all three crops. Russia halted ammonium nitrate exports for a month and acknowledged it has no spare capacity to significantly increase output. Goldman Sachs warned that a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could reduce yields and shift planting decisions toward less fertilizer-intensive crops. This is structurally supportive for grains, especially wheat and corn, where spring input costs matter most.

South America remained a key but mixed factor. Brazil’s safrinha corn belt is turning drier during a critical window, while Brazilian soybean and soymeal exports remain very large, despite some logistical and phytosanitary frictions. In Argentina, rainfall helped stabilize late crops, but part of the damage is already done. This leaves the global market highly dependent on weather in the coming weeks rather than any single fundamental driver.

The market now heads into the new week focused on the March planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports. If USDA confirms lower acreage for corn and wheat and higher soybean area, the balance sheet could shift quickly. For now, the picture is clear: wheat is leading, corn is leaning on biofuels, and soybeans remain the most reactive to RVO, meal, oil and China.

Wheat ended the week as the strongest crop. The May ’26 CBOT contract closed at $6.05, up 9 3/4 cents on the week, with Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat posting even stronger gains. The move was driven by dry Southern Plains weather, worsening winter wheat conditions, strong export sales, the Algerian tender and expectations for lower U.S. acreage.

The wheat outlook was further supported by the global backdrop. Russia’s wheat export duty surged 3.7 times, while SovEcon raised its export forecast due to stronger demand and more active importers. In Europe, the European Commission projected a smaller crop and tighter ending stocks for 2026/27, while India introduced additional uncertainty with a weaker-than-expected harvest after unusual rainfall and hail. This leaves wheat highly sensitive to any further deterioration in weather or logistics.

Corn finished the week more moderately. The May ’26 contract closed at $4.62, down 3 1/2 cents on the week, despite more supportive trading on Wednesday and Thursday. Export sales were solid, Mexico remained the top buyer, and the Taiwan tender added another demand signal, but weakness on Friday and caution ahead of the acreage report limited upside.

The key support for corn came from biofuels. The E15 waiver from May 1 and the more constructive tone around final RVO decisions remain directly supportive for domestic demand. At the same time, expectations for 94.37 million acres this spring keep the market in a “wait for USDA” mode, especially with March 1 stocks expected to be record for the date. Ukraine and Brazil added a secondary layer of support and risk, but not enough to push futures higher into the weekly close.

Soybeans remained the most volatile and policy-sensitive crop. The May ’26 contract ended the week at $11.59 1/4, down 2 cents, after strong gains in meal and oil midweek were partially reversed on Friday. The final RVO decision was supportive for the oilseed complex, but the market reacted with a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” move, while expectations for larger soybean acreage weighed on prices.

Soybean demand remained two-sided. Export sales for 2025/26 were the strongest in five weeks, with China again a key buyer, and strong meal and oil demand supported prices midweek. At the same time, total export commitments still lag last year, limiting the sustainability of rallies. China and Brazil also agreed to ease sanitary rules for soybean shipments, reducing some logistical risk, but not offsetting the impact of large Brazilian supply and expected acreage expansion in the U.S.