The market starts the day with fresh support for wheat, corn and soybeans, as U.S. weather risk, spring planting intentions and upcoming biofuel decisions remain the key drivers.

The grain complex enters Friday’s session with a clearly more positive tone, driven by strong weekly export sales, expectations for important policy decisions in the U.S., and continued focus on weather in key production regions. Wheat retains the strongest fundamental support, corn is leaning on the biofuel story and steady exports, while soybeans remain the most sensitive to the combination of oil, meal and Chinese demand.

One of the most important market headlines comes from the White House, where actions in support of U.S. farmers are expected to be announced today. At the same time, the administration is preparing the long-awaited Renewable Fuel Standard blending mandates, which are a key factor for corn and soybean oil. For the market, this means the agricultural sector remains at the center of the policy agenda, and any additional biofuel support could strengthen feedstock demand.

Wheat remains the primary beneficiary of the latest export data. Sales for the week ending March 19 were more than double the previous week and nearly four times the same period last year, showing that global demand continues to find U.S. wheat despite strong competition. Additional support comes from a large Algerian purchase and expectations for lower U.S. wheat acreage in the March planting intentions report.

Weather is also working in wheat’s favor, particularly in the Southern Plains. Drought is expanding, winter wheat conditions are deteriorating, and soil moisture is not favorable for spring planting in many areas. This keeps risk elevated for HRW wheat and leaves the market sensitive to any further deterioration in U.S. conditions in the coming days.

The international wheat outlook is also supportive. The European Commission is projecting a smaller soft wheat crop in the EU for 2026/27 and declining ending stocks, pointing to a tighter balance sheet in Europe. At the same time, India’s crop is expected to be larger than last year but below initial projections due to unusual rainfall and hail, adding another layer of uncertainty to the global wheat market.

Corn starts Friday with a more moderate but still constructive tone. Old-crop export sales reached 1.22 MMT for the week ending March 19, with Mexico again the top buyer, and the total is 17.1% above the same week last year. This is an important signal that demand remains solid, especially if it is reinforced by upcoming biofuel decisions.

The corn market is also focused on the March planting intentions report, where acreage is expected at 94.37 million acres. If confirmed, this would be 4.4 million acres below last year, providing fundamental support to prices. For now, however, traders remain cautious and are waiting for USDA confirmation, while biofuel policy remains the key short-term catalyst.

Soybeans are the most product-driven market at the start of the day. Futures are higher, supported by stronger soybean oil and soymeal, while export sales for the new marketing year reached the highest level in five weeks. China again stands out as a key buyer, keeping the market well supported ahead of new acreage data.

It is particularly notable that soybean meal sales were the highest since mid-December and exceeded market expectations. This shows that protein demand remains strong, while soybean oil continues to benefit from the broader biofuel theme. Combined with expectations for larger soybean acreage this spring, the market continues to balance strong short-term demand against potentially larger supply later in the season.

Weather in South America remains an important backdrop for grains and oilseeds. The southern Pampas in Argentina continue to receive moisture, while Brazil’s center-west is shifting toward a drier pattern, which is unfavorable for safrinha corn. This is especially important as roughly one month remains in the wet season, and any further dryness could impact yields.

The broader logistics and input picture is also supportive for agricultural markets. Russia does not have spare capacity to significantly increase fertilizer production, while supply chain disruptions remain a risk for spring planting in many regions. At the same time, grain movement on the Mississippi has increased and barge rates have declined, suggesting improved domestic logistics in the U.S. that could support corn and soybean exports.

At the same time, the global grain outlook remains highly sensitive to weather anomalies. In North and Central America, warm conditions and moisture in wheat areas are creating a mixed but generally supportive backdrop for winter crops, while the Black Sea region is seeing localized dryness but also potential for improved rainfall over the weekend. For the Bulgarian and regional market, this means the spring season begins with good moisture reserves in parts of Europe, but also clear risks if rainfall distribution becomes uneven.

Wheat for May ’26 CBOT is trading up 3 1/4 cents from yesterday’s close of $6.05, which followed a 7 1/4 cent gain on Thursday. The market remains supported by strong export sales, the Algerian tender, expectations for lower U.S. acreage and ongoing drought in the Southern Plains. For now, wheat has the clearest combination of demand strength and weather risk.

Corn for May ’26 CBOT is up 2 cents in early Friday trade after closing yesterday at $4.67, down 1/4 cent. Improved export sales, strong demand from Mexico and expectations for lower acreage are supporting the market, while the biofuel decision could provide the next directional push. Corn remains more stable than aggressively bullish, but fundamentals have improved from earlier in the week.

Soybeans for May ’26 CBOT are trading 2 to 4 1/2 cents higher this morning after closing yesterday at $11.73 3/4, up 2 cents. Support comes from strong soymeal, higher soybean oil, the strongest export sales in five weeks and active Chinese demand. With biofuel policy and the oilseed complex in focus, soybeans remain the most reactive market to incoming headlines.