Dryness in the U.S. Plains, higher Russian export duties and a broader fertilizer squeeze kept wheat at the center of the day’s market support. Corn and soybeans also firmed on biofuel optimism and demand talk, but wheat had the clearest weather-and-policy tailwind.

Wednesday’s trade was driven by a tighter supply narrative across the grain complex. Wheat drew the strongest support from worsening dryness in key U.S. production areas, while Russia’s sharply higher wheat export duty and a more cautious global fertilizer backdrop added to the bullish tone. Corn and soybeans were helped more by policy and demand headlines than by fresh weather problems.

The biggest wheat driver was the forecast for a drier stretch across much of the Plains and HRW country, which is problematic given already weak crop ratings. That kept Chicago and Kansas City futures under solid buying interest and reinforced the market’s concern that spring moisture may not arrive in time to stabilize the crop.

Russia added another layer of support after raising its wheat export duty sharply for the week ahead, a move that can slow near-term export flow and keep importers more active in the global market. SovEcon also lifted its Russian export outlook on stronger demand, but it warned that U.S. dryness, rising fertilizer costs in Europe and Ukraine, and broader supply risks were making the market more sensitive to disruptions.

Fertilizer headlines were another important market input. Russia halted ammonium nitrate exports for a month, and Goldman Sachs warned that any nitrogen shortage tied to Middle East shipping disruptions could hurt yields and even shift planting choices. That combination is supportive for grain prices overall, but it is especially important for wheat and corn because both crops are heavily exposed to spring input costs and yield risk.

Biofuels policy was one of the main reasons corn and soybeans were able to hold higher. The EPA waiver allowing E15 sales from May 1 was a constructive headline for corn demand, and USDA-related comments suggested the administration is pushing hard to finalize blending rules. That keeps the market focused on feedstock demand, which is especially relevant for corn and soy oil.

Ethanol data were not explosive, but they were firm enough to keep the corn tone constructive. Production rose while stocks also increased, and the market treated that as a steady rather than damaging report. A Taiwanese tender for U.S. corn added a separate demand signal and helped offset early session weakness.

Soybeans benefited from the same biofuel theme, with soy oil jumping even as soymeal softened. That divergence matters because the market is still trying to gauge how much support the coming renewable fuel guidance and RVO decision could give to vegetable oil demand. The expected White House meeting with China’s president also kept attention on trade flows and potential demand improvements.

Outside the U.S., Brazil’s soy export pace remained large even though ANEC trimmed its March estimate from the prior week. Chinese officials also signaled continued cooperation with Brazil to secure stable grain supply, which underscores how central Brazil remains to China’s import strategy. At the same time, weaker Indian buying of vegetable oils could cap palm oil and U.S. soyoil upside if the war-driven rally fades.

Weather in South America was mixed, with drier conditions building in parts of Brazil’s center-west while southern Pampas areas stayed warm and wet. That keeps soy and corn traders alert for any planting or late-season stress, but for now the more immediate market reaction is still being driven by policy, fertilizer and export demand rather than a sudden South American crop shock.

Wheat for May ’26 CBOT closed at $5.97 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents. Chicago SRW, KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat all finished firmer, with HRW leading the complex on the day. The move reflected dry Plains weather, stronger Russian export controls and a more supportive global supply backdrop.

Corn for May ’26 CBOT closed at $4.67 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents. Corn traded higher despite early weakness as the E15 waiver, steadier ethanol data and the Taiwan tender helped underpin the market. Export sales expected Thursday will be watched closely to see whether demand can extend the day’s recovery.

Soybeans for May ’26 CBOT closed at $11.71 3/4, up 16 3/4 cents. Beans rallied late, supported by biofuel optimism, expectations for upcoming export sales and spillover from firmer soy oil. The market is also watching the EPA’s RVO timing and any China-related trade signals for the next leg of direction.