Early Chicago trade on Tuesday is modestly firmer across corn and soybeans and mixed in wheat, as traders balance solid U.S. export performance against improving South American crop prospects and ongoing pressure from Black Sea supply. Export inspections and sales data remain the key near-term support, while weather and global trade flows continue to shape intraday risk.

The wheat market is entering the session under pressure after a broad selloff on Monday, reflecting weaker global competitiveness and soft near-term demand. U.S. wheat inspections fell to 351,001 MT last week, down from both the prior week and last year, even as cumulative marketing-year shipments remain more than 18% above year-ago levels. The slower weekly pace has reinforced concerns that U.S. wheat is losing ground to cheaper Black Sea and Southern Hemisphere supplies.

Russia remains a dominant bearish force for wheat, with officials confirming 41 million tons of wheat exports in 2025 and signaling export potential of 55 million tons in 2026. The scale of Russian supply continues to cap rallies in Chicago and Kansas City futures, particularly as there are no immediate signs of tighter export controls. Plans by Russian logistics groups to expand grain hubs aimed at Africa further underline the long-term competitiveness challenge for U.S. and EU wheat.

Weather across the U.S. Plains remains a mixed influence. Heavy snow and ice from recent storms are providing insulation for some winter wheat areas, but extreme cold has raised concerns about localized damage where snow cover is thin. As temperatures gradually moderate, the market is watching for clearer assessments of crop conditions, with near-term impacts seen as uneven rather than broadly supportive.

Corn fundamentals continue to look comparatively constructive. U.S. corn export inspections reached 1.51 MMT last week, up from both the prior week and last year, pushing marketing-year shipments more than 53% above year-ago levels. Mexico, Japan, and Spain remain key buyers, reinforcing the view that U.S. corn remains competitively priced into early 2026.

South America remains a two-sided factor for corn. In Brazil, first-crop harvest is underway, but second-crop planting is lagging last year’s pace despite a higher overall production estimate of 136.6 MMT. The slower safrinha planting window introduces potential weather risk later in the season, which is quietly supportive to deferred corn contracts even as near-term supply improves.

Soybeans are drawing early support from strong shipment data but face headwinds from global trade dynamics. U.S. soybean inspections totaled 1.324 MMT last week, nearly 80% above the same week last year, with China accounting for the majority of shipments. Year-to-date shipments are up 37.5%, helping to underpin nearby futures after Monday’s losses.

However, soybean export sales remain a concern. Commitments are running 22% below last year and trail the normal seasonal pace, highlighting that strong shipments are being driven by earlier sales rather than fresh demand. This imbalance is keeping rallies in check, particularly as Brazil’s harvest accelerates and production estimates rise to 181 MMT.

China’s shift toward Brazilian soybeans is an added bearish undertone. After meeting near-term U.S. purchase commitments, Chinese buyers have reportedly increased bookings of cheaper Brazilian cargoes for March and April loading. The price premium of U.S. soybeans into China is discouraging additional spot buying, limiting upside potential for CBOT beans despite supportive shipment data.

Broader oilseed and biofuel developments are also influencing sentiment at the margins. The ramp-up of sustainable aviation fuel production in Asia underscores longer-term demand for vegetable oils, but near-term soy oil futures remain subdued. Meanwhile, developments in the global canola market, including renewed Chinese purchases of Canadian supply, reinforce competitive pressures across the oilseed complex.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting Tuesday slightly higher, currently up 1/2 cent after closing Monday at $5.22 1/2/bu, down 7 cents. Early trade reflects light short-covering after Monday’s losses, but global supply pressure from Russia and slower weekly U.S. inspections continue to cap upside.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is trading about 1 cent higher early Tuesday after settling Monday at $4.28 1/4/bu, down 2 1/4 cents. Strong export inspections and robust cumulative shipments are providing support, while traders monitor Brazil’s second-crop planting pace for potential forward risk.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are up about 3 cents in early trade after closing Monday at $10.61 3/4/bu, down 6 cents. Solid shipment volumes are underpinning the market, but weak new sales and China’s preference for Brazilian supplies are limiting follow-through buying.