The week opened with markets digesting delayed USDA export sales reports, which immediately reset sentiment. Corn and soybeans saw historic demand figures for the week ending January 15, as buyers stepped in aggressively following prior price breaks. The release compressed several days of pent-up demand into a single session, amplifying volatility and forcing rapid repositioning across the grain complex.
Corn demand was the standout story. U.S. corn export sales surged to 4.01 MMT, the largest weekly total since 2021 and one of the biggest on record excluding shutdown-distorted weeks. Sales were broad-based, led by unknown destinations, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico, confirming strong global appetite at current price levels. This wave of demand helped lift futures and cash prices late in the week, even as Brazil raised its corn production estimate to 136.6 MMT and first-crop harvest advanced.
Soybeans also delivered a powerful demand signal. Export sales reached a marketing-year high of 2.45 MMT, with China accounting for more than half of the total, reinforcing the theme of sustained Chinese buying even as Brazil’s harvest accelerated. Strong soybean meal sales added support to the crush complex, while soy oil benefited from firm global vegetable oil demand. However, higher Brazilian crop estimates, now lifted toward 181 MMT, and rapid harvest progress continued to cap upside enthusiasm.
Wheat followed a different path, driven more by weather and positioning than pure demand. U.S. wheat export sales jumped to a nine-week high, more than triple last year’s pace, with Mexico and South Korea active buyers. At the same time, a massive winter storm and lingering arctic cold across the Central and Southern Plains raised winterkill concerns for exposed HRW and SRW acreage, triggering short-covering and fresh buying in winter wheat contracts. Spring wheat lagged, reflecting better crop protection and less weather exposure.
Global competition remained a constant counterweight for wheat. Argentina’s record harvest and aggressive export offers intensified pressure on EU exporters, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, where Black Sea and Argentine origins continue to dominate tenders. European farmers’ reluctance to sell at near five-year low prices further complicated EU export prospects, reinforcing a bearish longer-term backdrop despite short-term weather support in the U.S.
Vegetable oils and biofuels added another layer of cross-market influence. Indonesia’s December palm oil exports jumped sharply month-on-month, with strong flows to India, China, and the EU, keeping global veg-oil supplies ample. In the U.S., ethanol demand remained supportive for corn despite a slight pullback from record production, while rising exports and refiner inputs helped stabilize consumption expectations.
South American weather remained a key swing factor. Persistent rains across central and southeastern Brazil supported soybean filling but raised flooding risks in some areas, while drier conditions in southern Brazil and the Argentine Pampas increased downside risk for late-stage corn and soybeans. Despite these concerns, overall production prospects remain large, limiting how far weather premiums could push prices this week.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed the week at $5.29 1/2, supported by strong export sales, rising open interest, and winterkill concerns after severe Plains cold. Gains were tempered by heavy global supply, record Argentine output, and intense Black Sea competition.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn finished at $4.30 1/2, ending the week higher as historic export sales, firm cash markets, and biofuel demand offset rising Brazilian production estimates and ample global stocks.
Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans settled at $10.67 3/4, with strong Chinese buying, record weekly export sales, and firm product markets supporting prices, while accelerating Brazilian harvest progress and higher crop estimates restrained sustained upside.