- In their January report, IGC analysts forecast a 2022/23 world wheat production of 795.6 million tons (+5 compared to the previous report and 781 compared to 2021/22). Wheat production will reach 38.1 million tons in Australia (34.7 and 36.3), 25.2 million tons in Ukraine (21.5 and 33), 12 million tons in Argentina (13 and 22.1), 33.8 million tons in Canada (34.7 and 22.3) and 137.7 million tons in China (138 and 136.9). The estimate for the wheat production in Russia remained unchanged at 95.4 million tons. World wheat exports will be 193.1 million tons (191.4 and 195.7), including 27.2 million tons from Australia (25.2 and 27.6), 42.1 million tons from Russia (41.1 and 33.1), 14 million tons from Ukraine (13 and 18.9) and 6 million tons from Argentina (8 and 16.8). Ending world wheat stocks during the season will reach 280.6 million tons (281.7 and 273.9), including 4.5 million tons in Ukraine (6 and 5.9), 5 million tons in Canada (5.1 and 3.7), 19 million tons in Russia (20 and 11.3), 1.1 million tons in Argentina (0.8 and 0.9), 4.5 million tons in Australia ( 4 and 2.1), 14.9 million tons in the EU (13.7 and 15.8) and 17 million tons in India (16.8 and 19.6).

- During the week of January 18-24, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,719.4 rubles/ton (4,766.3 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 3,977.6 rubles/ton (3,870.6) and the export tax corn will be 1,174.6 rubles/ton (1,289.4).

- As of 12.01.2023, 6% of the cereal areas in Ukraine remain unharvested. 10.9 million hectares were harvested, 50.965 million tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 4.7 tons/hectare. Corn was harvested on 85% of the areas, with 23.5 million tons of corn harvested at an average yield of 6.57 tons/hectare.

- At the upcoming EU Council (January 30, 2023), Poland will request the refund of the import tax on Ukrainian corn. Subsequently, duty refunds will be requested on other crops as well.

- Analysts from Strategie Grains forecast a wheat production in the EU in 2023 of 128.7 million tons (125.6 in 2022). Corn production will be 63.8 million tons (63.7 in the December forecast and 50.6 in 2022), and barley production is expected to reach 52.3 million tons (-0.2 and +2%).

- According to Anec's forecast, soybean exports from Brazil will be 90 million tons in 2023 (77.8 in 2022 and 86.6 in 2021). Exports to China will increase by 4 million tons. In January, exports will reach 1.97 million tons. Exports of soymeal will remain high during the year. In 2022, the indicator was 20.39 million tons (+21%).

- According to Agroconsult's forecast, the corn production in Brazil will be 130.9 million tons in 2022/23 (+5.1 compared to 2021/22), including first corn production of 29.6 million tons and second corn production of 101.3 million tons. The soybean production is estimated at 153.4 million tons (+27.9), and soybean exports will be 93.6 million tons.

- Abiove predicts a soybean production in Brazil in 2022/23 of 152.6 million tons (153.5 in the previous estimate). Soybean exports are expected at 92 million tons (93 and +16.6%) and soybean processing in the country is projected at a record 52.5 million tons (50.4).

- In 2022, soybean supplies in China were 91.08 million tons (-5.6% compared to 2021). In December, imports reached 10.56 million tons (+19% compared to December 2021), which is the highest level since June 2021.

- The authorities in India may lift the ban on wheat exports in March or April. The ban was imposed in May 2022.

- According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, palm oil consumption in Indonesia will increase by 2.5-3 million tons in 2023 due to the use of the B35 standard for biodiesel. Oil production will be 50.82 million tons (51.33 in 2021).

- The Taiwan Millers Association has purchased 45,200 tons of milling wheat from the United States at USD 321.75 – 395.75/ton FOB with delivery in March.

- Turkey has purchased 320,000 tons of wheat with 12% protein (565,000 in the tender announcement) at prices of 323.20 – 332.3 USD/ton C&F and delivery in March.