Trump's warning of 2–3 more weeks of strikes and a threatened Strait of Hormuz closure jolts energy markets and reshapes crop input economics across the globe.
Grain markets are navigating a complex midday session on Thursday — the last trade day before the Good Friday holiday — as a $10.54/barrel surge in crude oil dominates macro sentiment while diverging export and fundamental data pull wheat, corn, and soybeans in different directions.
Crude Oil and the Iran War: The Session's Dominant Force
Crude oil is up $10.54 at midday after President Trump addressed the nation Wednesday night, signaling that U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran will continue for another two to three weeks with an uncertain fate for the Strait of Hormuz. The threat to one of the world's most critical energy and shipping chokepoints is reverberating across all commodity markets. Higher crude supports grain prices through energy cost pass-throughs and biofuel demand linkages, while simultaneously adding to input cost pressures that are reshaping planting decisions globally.
Fertilizer Costs Forcing Global Acreage Shifts
The Iran war's disruption to nitrogen supply chains out of the Gulf is triggering measurable shifts in crop mix from the U.S. to Australia. USDA's first survey-based plantings estimate, released Tuesday, showed U.S. farmers planning to reduce corn acres and increase soybean plantings, with analysts noting that the March survey — conducted before the full force of fertilizer price shocks were felt — likely overstates corn acreage. Analysts at Teucrium Trading called the USDA figure "probably the highest number we'll see in planted acreage for corn this year." In Australia, urea prices have surged roughly 60% since the conflict began to approximately A$1,350/ton, with diesel up 88%, prompting growers to substitute barley for wheat and canola. Australian wheat plantings could fall 10% to 12% from 12.4 million hectares a year ago, a structurally supportive signal for global wheat balances into the 2026/27 season.
U.S. Wheat Export Sales: A Marketing Year Low in Old Crop, Record High in New Crop
This morning's USDA weekly export sales report delivered a sharply bifurcated picture for wheat. Old crop sales for the week of March 26 came in at just 23,521 MT, a marketing year low and well below the trade estimate range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT — a bearish signal for nearby contracts. However, new crop 2026/27 sales surged to 272,839 MT, a marketing year high and above the high end of estimates at 300,000 MT, suggesting that international buyers are locking in forward coverage against supply uncertainty. Monthly Census data reinforced underlying demand, with 1.94 MMT of wheat shipped in February — a six-year high for the month and 26.69% above January.
Russia's Export Surge Adds Supply Pressure, Egypt Raises Procurement Prices
Russia exported 4.6 MMT of wheat in March, more than double the year-ago pace, as importing nations scrambled to build reserves ahead of further geopolitical disruptions. Egypt — Russia's largest wheat customer at over 1 MMT in March — is simultaneously raising its local wheat procurement price to 2,500 Egyptian pounds per ardeb ($46.76/150 kg), up from a previous range of 2,250–2,350 pounds, as Cairo targets 5 MMT of domestic procurement and moves toward strategic self-sufficiency. Egypt's prime minister confirmed reserves of strategic goods cover six months of needs, but the government is working to extend that buffer by two to three additional months.
Corn Export Sales Solid but Cofco's Argentina Cargo Underscores U.S. Displacement
Corn export sales for the week of March 26 came in at 1.15 MMT for old crop, in the middle of estimates of 0.9 to 1.6 MMT, though the figure is down 5.6% from the prior week and 2% below the same period last year. More structurally, Cofco International confirmed it is loading approximately 34,000 MT of Argentine corn destined for China at its Timbúes terminal — the first such shipment in over 15 years, following China's 2024 approval of Argentine corn imports. No U.S. corn has been sold to China during the current marketing year even as U.S. export volumes run at a record pace, a sign that trade war dynamics and Trump-era tariff policy continue to redirect Chinese demand toward South American origins.
Soybean Crush at Record Daily Pace; Palm Oil Surge Adds to Veg Oil Volatility
USDA's February Fats & Oils report, released Wednesday, showed 214.2 million bushels of soybeans crushed — up 12.99% year-over-year — with daily crush setting an all-time record of 7.65 million bushels. Marketing year crush through the first half now stands at 1.334 billion bushels, tracking 8.28% above last year and ahead of USDA's full-year projection of 130 mbu year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, Malaysian palm oil stocks plunged 19% in March to 2.19 MMT — the steepest monthly drop in three years — as war-related disruptions to Persian Gulf shipping lanes diverted edible-oil buyers toward palm, boosting Malaysian exports by 37%. That palm oil rally, now up 19% year-to-date, is applying competitive pressure on soy oil while simultaneously lifting energy-linked biofuel demand for all vegetable oils.
U.S. Ethanol and Corn Grind: Mixed Signals
DOE's weekly petroleum report showed U.S. ethanol stocks falling 4.3% to 25.991 million barrels, below analyst expectations of 27.068 million barrels, a draw that is supportive for corn-based ethanol demand. However, plant production at 1.075 million barrels per day came in below the survey average of 1.105 million b/d, limiting the bullish read. The USDA grain crush report confirmed February corn grind at 424.8 million bushels — up 0.73% year-over-year — but marketing year ethanol corn usage at 2.744 billion bushels runs 7 million below a year ago, tracking behind the USDA balance sheet target of a 111 million bushel year-over-year increase.
South American Weather: Brazil Safrinha Corn at Risk, Argentina Harvest Advancing
Central-West Brazil — the heart of the safrinha corn belt — is forecast to see drier-than-normal conditions over the next 15 days, expanding drought risks to second-crop corn during a critical development window. While rains will be favorable to the east for coffee and sugarcane, the safrinha is now at the mercy of what forecasters describe as isolated wet-season showers that are insufficient for the heavy, consistent rainfall needed for a strong crop. Argentina, by contrast, is progressing well, with corn harvest at 19% complete (per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, up from 15% the prior week) and early soybean harvest underway. A brief cool, wet spell next week is expected to have minimal impact on harvest progress.
Wheat
May 2026 CBOT SRW wheat is at $5.98 1/2 per bushel, up 1 cent on the session, with KC HRW front months 5 to 6 cents higher and MPLS spring wheat 3 to 4 1/2 cents higher. The complex is drawing support from the crude oil surge and its fertilizer-driven acreage implications in both Australia and the U.S., partially offset by a marketing year-low old crop export sales figure of just 23,521 MT that reinforces near-term demand concerns.
Corn
May 2026 CBOT corn is at $4.53 1/4, down 1 cent, with front months showing the weakest trade as the complex digests mixed signals. Old crop export sales of 1.15 MMT were in line with estimates but tracking below year-ago levels, while the Cofco/Argentina cargo to China serves as a direct reminder that U.S. corn remains locked out of the world's largest feed-grain importer. The February corn grind and Census export data showing a record 6.77 MMT shipped were constructive but are not providing fresh upside momentum at midday.
Soybeans
May 2026 CBOT soybeans are at $11.65 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents, with front months showing fractional to 3-cent losses. The national average cash bean price sits at $10.97 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents. Soymeal futures are $3.00 to $3.60 lower, while soy oil is 150 to 172 points higher, reflecting the strength in the broader vegetable oil complex tied to the palm oil rally. Old crop bean export sales of 353,259 MT came in at the low end of estimates, and new crop sales totaled zero — keeping near-term demand pressure on the downside of the market despite historically strong crush margins.