Core Market Drivers

Wheat futures are in rally mode across all three U.S. exchanges Thursday morning. Chicago SRW futures are up 10 to 12 cents, with Mar ’26 CBOT wheat trading at $5.57 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents. Strength is driven by a combination of Argentine port strike disruptions and positioning ahead of Friday’s export sales report.

Argentina’s 48-hour maritime workers’ strike is halting grain shipments at Rosario, one of the world’s largest agricultural export hubs. With loading activity expected to stall as vessels near draft limits, global wheat and soybean meal markets face short-term supply risk, which is supportive for U.S. prices.

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum released preliminary 2026 wheat estimates this morning, pegging planted acreage at 45 million acres and production at 1.860 bbu, with yield projected at 50.8 bpa. The relatively steady production outlook balances strike-related risk but keeps trade focused on export competitiveness.

International Grains Council data showed global wheat stocks down 1 MMT month-over-month to 282 MMT, although still 19 MMT above year-ago levels. This reinforces that global supply remains comfortable structurally, limiting runaway upside despite today’s rally.

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 1/2 cents lower at midday, with Mar ’26 CBOT corn at $4.24 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents. The market is digesting USDA’s acreage estimate of 94 million acres, down 4.8 million from last year but slightly below trade expectations.

EIA data showed ethanol production rising to 1.118 million barrels per day for the week ending 2/13, up 8,000 bpd, while stocks increased to 25.588 million barrels. Strong output supports corn usage, but rising inventories temper enthusiasm.

Soybeans are posting gains of 4 to 5 cents in front months, with Mar ’26 soybeans at $11.38, up 4 1/2 cents. The rally is supported by record January NOPA crush and expectations that EPA biofuel blending quotas for 2026 could boost soybean oil demand materially.

Brazilian soy exports are now seen at 11.46 MMT for February, slightly below last week’s 11.71 MMT forecast, while corn exports are projected at 1.12 MMT. The slight reduction in soybean export expectations offsets bullish crush data, keeping trade balanced.

Weather remains highly divided across South America. Flooding risk in Brazil contrasts with intensifying dryness in Argentina, where late-planted corn and soybeans remain vulnerable. While Brazil is still projected to produce a record 178 MMT of soybeans, localized losses in Rio Grande do Sul could reduce earlier estimates.

Global trade headlines add additional support. Indonesian firms signed agreements to purchase 1 million tons of U.S. soybeans, 1.6 million tons of corn and up to 5 million tons of wheat by 2030. These forward-looking commitments reinforce underlying export demand across the complex.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is trading at $5.57 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents. Gains are driven by Argentine port strike disruptions, export positioning ahead of Friday’s report and supportive global trade headlines.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.24 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents. USDA acreage cuts and strong ethanol production are offset by rising ethanol stocks and comfortable global supply projections.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are trading at $11.38, up 4 1/2 cents. Record January crush, strengthening soybean oil and Indonesian demand agreements are supporting early-session strength despite mixed Brazilian export forecasts.