The strength of export flows was the central fundamental driver. Weekly inspections pointed to sizable volumes — around 1.51 MMT of corn and 1.324 MMT of soybeans — while weekly sales and agency data showed heavy physical movement that supported demand and validated recent price recoveries. This confirmation of physical demand was especially important for wheat and corn, as it turned demand hypotheses into actual cargoes moving.

Wheat benefited from a combination of export demand and the reassessment of winter risks across the U.S. Plains. Export data and strong November shipments added weight to the price recovery, while EU revisions to stocks and export availability improved U.S. wheat competitiveness relative to some European origins. At the same time, volumes from the Black Sea region continue to limit the scope for aggressive upside, keeping upward pressure measured.

South American weather emerged as the single largest structural uncertainty. Persistent drought across central and southern Argentina heightened concerns for late-stage corn and soybean development, supporting a risk premium in oilseed and feed-grain markets. At the same time, heavy rainfall in central Brazil brought localized flood risks but also supported some late-developing soybean crops, partially easing production concerns there.

Energy-linked demand dynamics (ethanol) provided a mixed backdrop for corn. Weekly EIA data showed a modest dip in ethanol production to around 1.114 million barrels per day and a drawdown in stocks to roughly 25.4 million barrels — a combination that only partly offset concerns about volatility in ethanol demand and limited the potential for a sustained strong rally. As a result, fundamentals remain constructive, but scope for a prolonged breakout is constrained.

Product markets exerted an important secondary influence on soybeans. Strong demand for soy products, particularly soymeal, supported the segment, while soy oil and weaker fresh sales capped the overall move. In addition, China’s buying behavior — increasing bookings of Brazilian cargoes after meeting near-term U.S. commitments — reduced the short-term upside potential for U.S. soybean exports.

Transportation and physical shipment data further sharpened the narrative around real demand. November figures showed strong dispatches — notably 1.616 MMT of wheat and 7.305 MMT of corn — demonstrating that logistics are actively moving grain and supporting prices even as weekly sales fluctuate. These physical confirmations weighed heavily in the decision-making of both commercial participants and funds.

Positioning and technical signals amplified the market response. Rising open interest in certain sessions and reported adjustments in managed-money positions indicated that part of the price movement was driven by fresh buying rather than simple short-covering — a factor that makes markets more sensitive to upcoming export-flow data and updated South American weather models.

Wheat: Supported by exports and winter-weather risk in the U.S.; EU revisions and heavy November shipments strengthened the case for additional demand, although strong Black Sea supply continues to cap aggressive upside.

Corn: Physical flows and record November shipments underpinned the market, but the energy backdrop (ethanol) and mixed South American forecasts limited the potential for sustained gains.

Soybeans: Influenced by strong soymeal demand and Argentine weather uncertainty, but capped by weaker fresh sales and Chinese buying focused on Brazil; product markets remain central to short-term dynamics.