Chicago grain futures are lower to start Monday’s session, kicking off February with broad-based pressure as a firmer U.S. dollar, softer outside markets and positioning adjustments dominate early trade. While underlying export demand remains supportive in places, traders are reassessing risk after last week’s rally and shifting focus to updated South American weather forecasts and key U.S. crush and livestock data due later today.

Wheat is starting the week under renewed pressure after fading late last week. Friday’s session saw the wheat complex give back ground as the U.S. dollar index jumped by 0.893, eroding export competitiveness and triggering selling across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts. The pullback followed a strong weekly performance, suggesting the early-week weakness is driven more by macro pressure than a deterioration in fundamentals.

Fund positioning remains an important backdrop for wheat. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money covering 15,957 contracts of net shorts in Chicago wheat as of January 27, reducing the net short to 94,743 contracts, while Kansas City shorts were trimmed by 2,689 contracts to 10,329. The short-covering helped fuel last week’s rally, but with open interest falling by 8,280 contracts in Chicago on Friday, some of that momentum is now stalling.

Export demand continues to underpin the wheat balance sheet despite the early price pressure. Accumulated U.S. wheat export commitments stand at 21.595 MMT, running 18% ahead of the same point last year and already 88% of USDA’s full-year forecast. Additional demand surfaced late last week with Taiwan purchasing 106,350 MT of U.S. wheat via tender, reinforcing the view that underlying demand remains intact.

Corn is also trading lower early Monday, pressured by the stronger dollar and cautious risk sentiment. Futures closed Friday down 2 to 4 cents despite recovering from midday lows, and nearby contracts are extending that weakness to start the new week. Open interest fell by 3,824 contracts on Friday, signaling a degree of liquidation rather than aggressive new selling.

From a positioning standpoint, corn funds have been easing bearish exposure. CFTC data showed managed money trimming 9,274 contracts from their net short as of January 27, bringing the net short to 72,050 contracts, largely through new long positions. Commercials, however, reduced longs, pushing their net short up by 17,381 contracts to 187,342, which may be limiting upside follow-through.

South American developments are a mixed influence for corn. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its good-to-excellent rating for corn to 46%, down from 52% last week, though still well above last year’s 31%. In Brazil, AgRural estimates the first corn crop at just 10% harvested, behind last year’s 14%, while second-crop planting has reached 13%, four points ahead of last year, keeping production risks finely balanced.

Soybeans are the weakest leg of the complex to start February. Futures are down 6 to 7 cents early after closing Friday 8 to 10 cents lower, extending last week’s losses. Product markets are adding pressure, with soymeal down $2.40 to $3.00 and soy oil lower by 52 points on Friday, dragging on the crush complex.

Fund positioning in soybeans contrasts with the price action. CFTC data showed spec funds adding 7,261 contracts to their net long as of January 27, lifting the net long to 17,321 contracts. That long exposure leaves soybeans vulnerable to further liquidation if demand signals do not improve.

Export performance remains a key headwind for soybeans. U.S. soybean export commitments stand at 33.85 MMT as of January 22, running 20% below last year and only 79% of USDA’s export projection, well behind the average 87% seasonal pace. Traders are now looking ahead to USDA crush data due later today, with December crush expected at 230.4 million bushels, which could provide a counterbalance if confirmed.

Weather remains a critical variable in the background. Heavy rains in central Brazil are raising concerns about flooding and harvest disruptions, while Argentina remains dry, with crop conditions still fragile despite recent scattered rainfall. Forecast confidence is high through mid-February, keeping weather risk firmly embedded in soybean and corn pricing even as early-week trade turns defensive.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is trading around $5.34/bu early Monday, down about 4 1/4 cents after closing Friday at $5.38/bu, down 3 1/2 cents. Early pressure reflects dollar strength and fading short-covering, despite export commitments running 18% ahead of last year.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is near $4.26/bu early Monday, down roughly 2 cents after settling Friday at $4.28 1/4/bu, down 2 1/2 cents. Weakness is tied to macro pressure and position consolidation, even as export commitments remain 33% above year-ago levels.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are trading near $10.58/bu early Monday, down about 6 1/4 cents after closing Friday at $10.64 1/4/bu, down 8 cents. The market is pressured by weak export pace, softer product markets and the risk of fund long liquidation ahead of USDA crush data.