Chicago grain futures are mixed early Friday, with wheat edging higher while corn and soybeans trade lower after Thursday’s export-driven session. Solid wheat demand, supportive trade flow data, and ongoing weather risk continue to underpin the complex, but profit-taking and softer near-term momentum are pressuring corn and soybeans into the end of the week.
Wheat is showing relative strength at the start of Friday trade, extending this week’s rally in winter wheat contracts. Chicago SRW and KC HRW futures are higher early, while spring wheat lags slightly, reflecting continued focus on export competitiveness and Plains weather. Although some short-covering was noted on Thursday, the broader tone remains supportive.
Export demand remains a central pillar for wheat prices. USDA data released Thursday showed weekly wheat export sales of 558,201 MT for the week ending January 22, down from the prior week but more than 22% above the same week last year. Strong buying from Japan, Mexico, and Nigeria continues to signal that U.S. wheat is holding its ground in global markets.
Trade flow data reinforced that view. Census figures showed November wheat exports at 1.616 MMT, the highest November total in five years, confirming robust physical movement. This lends credibility to the recent price recovery and keeps buyers engaged despite ample global stocks.
European supply updates are adding nuance to the wheat outlook. The European Commission lowered its EU soft wheat export forecast to 29.5 MMT while raising ending stocks, highlighting reduced export availability amid strong competition. That dynamic offers marginal support to U.S. wheat prices even as overall supply remains sufficient.
Corn is under modest pressure early Friday, giving back some of Thursday’s gains. Futures are down 2 to 3 cents in the nearbys as traders react to lighter open interest and consolidate positions following the export report. Despite the early dip, the broader demand picture remains constructive.
Weekly corn export sales totaled 1.649 MMT, below the previous week but still more than 21% above year-ago levels, with Japan, Mexico, and Colombia leading purchases. Census data showed November corn shipments of 7.305 MMT, the second-largest November total on record, underscoring strong physical demand that limits downside risk.
Soybeans are weaker to start Friday after failing to sustain Thursday’s early strength. Export sales of 818,972 MT were sharply lower than the prior week, and Census data showing November soybean exports at just 4.29 MMT—the lowest November total since 2007—continue to weigh on sentiment. Product markets are also softer, with soymeal and soy oil both under pressure.
South American weather remains a key background driver. Dryness persists across much of southern Argentina, with only uncertain and sporadic rainfall expected, supporting longer-term risk for corn and soybeans. However, the lack of immediate supply disruption is allowing near-term selling pressure to surface, particularly in soybeans, as traders focus on current export performance.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is trading around $5.43 1/2/bu early Friday, up about 2 cents after closing Thursday at $5.41 1/2/bu, up 5 1/2 cents. Support comes from solid export demand, strong November shipment data, and reduced EU export availability.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is near $4.28 1/4/bu early Friday, down roughly 2 1/2 cents after settling Thursday at $4.30 3/4/bu, up 3/4 cent. Early weakness reflects consolidation after export data, though strong shipments and ethanol exports continue to underpin demand.
Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are trading near $10.66 1/4/bu early Friday, down about 6 cents after closing Thursday at $10.72 1/4/bu, down 2 3/4 cents. Pressure is tied to weaker export flow data and softer product markets, despite ongoing weather risk in Argentina.