Chicago grain futures finished Wednesday firmly higher, led by a strong rally in wheat and followed by gains in corn and soybeans. A weaker U.S. dollar, escalating weather risks in Argentina, and renewed focus on winter wheat conditions in the U.S. combined to support prices, while traders positioned ahead of Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report.

Wheat markets staged a broad-based rally as currency and weather factors aligned. Persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar index improved export competitiveness, encouraging buying across SRW, HRW, and spring wheat contracts. The move reflected a rebuild of risk premium after earlier cold-weather concerns were reassessed earlier in the week.

U.S. winter wheat weather remained a central driver. Following the historic winter storm, prolonged cold risks are expected to persist into February, particularly in areas with limited snow cover. While some regions benefit from insulation, uneven protection keeps potential crop damage in focus and supports wheat prices.

Forecasts also showed limited precipitation across much of the Southern Plains in the coming week, with only marginal moisture expected along the eastern edges of HRW territory. This reinforces concerns about soil moisture replenishment and keeps weather sensitivity elevated for winter wheat conditions.

Corn futures benefited from spillover strength from wheat and continued softness in the U.S. dollar. Gains were modest but steady, as traders balanced supportive macro signals against mixed energy data. The broader grain rally helped offset caution stemming from ethanol fundamentals.

EIA data released Wednesday showed ethanol production slipping to 1.114 million bpd for the week ending January 23, while ethanol stocks declined by 339,000 barrels to 25.4 million barrels. The stock draw and higher refiner inputs limited bearish pressure, even as exports declined, keeping corn futures supported rather than pressured.

Soybeans drew strength primarily from the product markets, led by soymeal. Drier forecasts and ongoing heat stress in Argentina heading into key crop stages boosted concerns over yield potential, particularly for soybeans and corn. Meal strength offset modest weakness in soy oil and underpinned the broader soy complex.

Argentina’s heat wave remained a dominant global supply concern. Temperatures near 40°C and limited near-term rainfall raised expectations for downward revisions to corn and soybean production estimates, especially for early-planted corn. This weather-driven risk premium provided indirect support across global feed grain and oilseed markets.

Export expectations also contributed to firm market tone. Traders positioned ahead of Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report, with moderate wheat sales expected, solid corn bookings anticipated, and a wide range projected for soybean sales. The uncertainty around demand confirmation kept buying interest intact into the close.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.36/bu, up 12 3/4 cents. Strength was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, renewed winter wheat weather risk, and continued concern over limited precipitation in key Plains regions.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.30/bu, up 3 1/2 cents. Futures were supported by wheat-led spillover strength and dollar weakness, with ethanol stock draws helping offset softer production and export figures.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans finished at $10.75/bu, up 7 3/4 cents. Gains were led by strong soymeal prices tied to Argentine weather stress, which outweighed modest pressure in the soy oil market.