Grain markets are opening Friday higher after a volatile midweek stretch, with participants cautious but constructive heading into the holiday-shortened trade. After Thursday’s mixed close, early buying reflects a combination of technical rebound interest and continued confirmation of demand through export channels. With markets closed Monday and reopening Monday evening, positioning risk is influencing early flows.
Wheat is showing the clearest early strength, with winter wheat contracts leading gains after being pressured late in the week. Thursday’s weak close followed disappointing U.S. export sales, but follow-on international buying and early Friday short-covering are helping prices recover, particularly in SRW and HRW contracts.
Export demand remains the central wheat driver. While weekly U.S. wheat export sales were light at 156,255 MT for the week ending January 8, South Korean importers returned to the market with a 92,300 MT purchase of U.S. wheat on Thursday. This buying reinforces that U.S. wheat remains competitive on breaks, even as overall demand remains selective.
European fundamentals continue to shape the broader wheat outlook. Expana raised its EU wheat production forecast to 128.6 MMT while trimming its export estimate to 28.8 MMT, underscoring ongoing competition among exporters and keeping longer-term upside capped despite intermittent demand flashes.
Corn is trading modestly higher this morning after Thursday’s soft close, supported by firm export demand and renewed buying interest from Asia. USDA confirmed large weekly sales of 1.14 MMT for 2025/26, more than triple the prior week, with Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan leading purchases. Additional overnight buying by South Korean importers adds further near-term support.
South American supply remains a limiting factor for corn rallies. Brazil’s CONAB maintained its 2025/26 corn production estimate at 138.87 MMT, reinforcing expectations for ample exportable supplies later in the season and tempering bullish enthusiasm despite strong U.S. demand indicators.
Soybeans are trading near unchanged after Thursday’s strong advance, as the market pauses to digest a wave of bullish demand news. Massive export sales, a firm NOPA crush report, and supportive biofuel policy expectations lifted prices sharply on Thursday, leaving the market consolidating rather than extending gains immediately.
Demand signals for soybeans remain robust. USDA reported 2.06 MMT of export sales for the week, with China accounting for 1.224 MMT, while December NOPA crush reached 224.991 million bushels, just above expectations. Rising soybean oil stocks and uncertainty around final EPA biodiesel mandates are keeping traders cautious into the weekend.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting the session up about 7 cents after closing Thursday at $5.10 1/2, down 2 cents. Early gains reflect short-covering, fresh South Korean buying interest, and pre-holiday positioning after recent weakness.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is trading around 2 cents higher at the start of the day following a Thursday close at $4.20 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents. Strong weekly export sales and additional Asian buying are underpinning prices despite large South American production expectations.
Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are fractionally lower early after a Thursday close at $10.53, up 10 1/2 cents. The market is consolidating after a sharp rally fueled by massive export sales, a strong NOPA crush, and optimism around biofuel demand.