Grain markets are opening the session with modest gains after several days of heavy selling tied to USDA’s larger production and stock revisions. Traders are shifting focus from balance sheet resets toward demand-side signals, particularly in corn and soybeans, while remaining cautious about global supply.
Corn is drawing early support from the biofuels sector. Ahead of today’s EIA report, analysts expect U.S. ethanol production to hold steady at 1.105 million barrels per day, reinforcing corn usage for fuel at a time when record production has weighed heavily on prices. This demand narrative is helping corn recover part of this week’s losses.
Soybeans are supported by expectations of another exceptionally strong U.S. crush month. Analysts estimate NOPA members crushed 224.809 million bushels in December, potentially the second-highest monthly total on record, reflecting expanded processing capacity and robust vegetable oil demand from biofuels. However, the projected rise in soyoil stocks tempers the bullish impact.
Export activity remains constructive. USDA confirmed fresh soybean sales to China and Mexico, and weekly shipment data continue to show solid demand across major destinations. While exports alone have not been enough to reverse the broader downtrend, they are helping underpin early-session price stability.
South American supply developments continue to cap upside potential. Brazil’s soybean exports are projected to reach a record January level near 3.73 MMT despite harvest just beginning, while corn exports are also forecast higher. These flows reinforce expectations of ample near-term global availability.
Weather remains a mixed influence across key regions. Central Brazil is seeing improving rainfall beneficial for soybean filling, while Argentina’s corn and soybean areas remain under dryness stress that is expected to trim crop conditions further. In the U.S., colder conditions returning later this week raise some winter wheat risk but are not yet disruptive.
In vegetable oils, sentiment is split. Indonesian signals delaying a move to a B50 biodiesel mandate pressured palm oil prices, while soyoil remains supported by U.S. biofuel demand and trade developments involving Canada and China. This divergence continues to influence crush margins and soy complex spreads.
Black Sea headlines remain in the background. Russian wheat export forecasts were revised higher for January, though extreme cold risks for the next crop are emerging. For now, competitive export pricing and quotas remain the dominant wheat-market drivers.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting the day up 2 cents after closing Tuesday at $5.10 1/2, down 3/4 cent. Early firmness reflects short-covering and weather uncertainty in key exporting regions, though higher Russian export projections continue to cap gains.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is trading 4 1/2 cents higher early after settling Tuesday at $4.19 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents. Expectations for steady ethanol production and fresh South Korean buying interest are supporting the rebound attempt.
Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are up about 4 cents at the start of the session following a Tuesday close at $10.23 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents. Anticipation of a strong December NOPA crush and confirmed export sales are lifting prices, partially offset by rising South American exports and higher projected oil stocks.