Grain markets are opening the week with cautious strength as participants square up ahead of USDA’s major data release later today, including WASDE, quarterly Grain Stocks, Crop Production, and Winter Wheat Seedings. The combination of report risk and recent fund positioning has kept trade defensive but biased slightly higher into the start of the session.
China’s renewed demand for U.S. soybeans is a key early driver, with Sinograin confirmed to have purchased at least 10 cargoes for April–May shipment late last week, adding to an already active buying pace. Continued state buying, alongside the restart of large soybean auctions, highlights strong logistical demand even as China manages domestic inventories, supporting nearby soybeans while keeping volatility elevated.
South American weather remains a mixed influence. Forecasts point to improving rainfall across much of Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks, which is broadly favorable for corn and soybeans, though flooding risks in parts of southeastern Brazil and lingering dryness in Argentina keep some risk premium in the market. These forecasts limit upside but do not remove weather sensitivity.
In the Black Sea, cold conditions and uneven snow cover in Ukraine continue to raise winterkill concerns, even as harvest and export forecasts for Ukraine have been revised higher. Ongoing logistical risks from port disruptions remain supportive for global wheat values, especially for nearby contracts sensitive to export availability.
Vegetable oil markets are sending mixed signals. Malaysian palm oil stocks surged above 3 million metric tons, a bearish input for global veg oil pricing, while soyoil remains supported by energy and biofuel linkages. This cross-commodity tension keeps crush margins and soy complex spreads actively traded.
Fund positioning adds another layer of sensitivity today. Managed money increased net shorts in Chicago wheat while trimming corn shorts and reducing soybean length, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp moves depending on how USDA data align with expectations.
Logistics also remain on the radar, particularly along the Mississippi River, where water levels have improved only marginally. Any renewed bottlenecks could quickly tighten nearby basis levels for corn and soybeans, adding localized support to futures.
Traders today are focused squarely on USDA outcomes, with particular attention on U.S. ending stocks, winter wheat acreage, and confirmation of demand trends amid ongoing global supply resilience. Direction beyond the open is likely to be headline-driven and volatile.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting the session up 7 3/4 cents, rebounding after closing Friday at $5.17 1/4, down 3/4 cent. Early gains reflect short-covering ahead of USDA Winter Wheat Seedings and support from Black Sea weather and logistics risk.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is up 1 3/4 cents early after finishing Friday at $4.45 3/4, down 1/4 cent. Traders are watching today’s Crop Production and Grain Stocks data closely, with recent fund short-covering and export tender activity providing mild support.
Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are fractionally higher, up 1/2 cent at the start of the day after closing Friday at $10.48 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents. Fresh Chinese buying headlines and anticipation of USDA supply-and-demand adjustments are driving early strength, tempered by improving South American harvest conditions.