For the second time this month, Rusagrotrans has raised its forecast for the Russian wheat production in 2023 by 3.3 million tons to 92 million tons. Under certain circumstances, the production could increase to 93.4 million tons. The export potential of Russian wheat for 2023/24 will be 49.5 million tons (compared to 49.25 million tons in 2022/23).

According to a forecast by ProZerno, the sunseed production in Russia in 2023 will reach a record 17 million tons (compared to 16.32 million tons in 2022). The rapeseed production is expected at 4 million tons (-0.5).

During the week of 30.08 – 05.09.2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will reach 3,729.2 rubles/ton (compared to 4,269.9 rubles/ton the previous week). The export tax on barley will be 431.8 rubles/ton (860.3), the export tax on corn will be 1,931.5 rubles/ton (2,495.2). For September, the export tax on Russian sunflower oil remains zero.

According to the latest forecast by ProZerno, the grain production in Russia for 2023/24 will reach 140 million tons, the second-largest after the record 157.7 million tons in 2022/23. The barley production will be 20.5 million tons (23.4), rye production is estimated at 1.8 million tons (2.2) and corn production is projected at 15 million tons (15.9).

As of 24.08.2023, in Ukraine, 6.531 million hectares of grain crops have been harvested (60% of all areas) with an average yield of 4.4 tons/hectare, and 28.769 million tons of grain have been collected. Wheat has been harvested on 100% of the areas with an average yield of 4.72 tons/hectare and a production of 21.94 million tons. Barley has been harvested on 99% of the areas with an average yield of 3.89 tons/hectare and a produciton of 5.766 million tons. Rapeseed has been harvested on 97% of the areas, with 3.985 million tons of seeds collected.

During the period of 01.07 – 25.08.2023, Ukraine exported 4.032 million tons of grain (compared to 3.327 million tons the previous year), including 1.758 million tons in August (1.626 million tons). Exported were 1.694 million tons of wheat (896,000 tons in 2022/23), 459,000 tons of barley (272,000 tons), 1.871 million tons of corn (2.142 million tons).

According to the European Commission's forecast, the corn production in 2023/24 in the EU will be 61.7 million tons (compared to 63 million tons in the previous estimate and 52 million tons in 2022/23), soft wheat production will be 126.1 million tons (126.4 and 125.7) and barley production will reach 48.6 million tons (48.7 and 51.5). The export of soft wheat will be 32 million tons, ending stocks at 16.3 million tons (-1.1), and corn imports at 17 million tons. The rapeseed production will be 19.1 million tons (19.4), and sunseed production is expected at 10.5 million tons (10.6).

According to analysts from Refinitiv Commodities Research, the wheat production in Canada for 2023/24 will be 33.6 million tons (down 1.6 from the previous estimate and 33.8 from the record of 2022/23).

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that due to drought in Argentina, the sowing campaign of corn in the country will start later than usual. The planted areas are expected to reach 7.3 million hectares. As of 23.08.2023, 97% of the corn areas fof 2022/23 have been harvested, with 32.9 million tons collected.

According to an estimate by CNGOIC, during the week of 13 – 19 August, soybean processing in China was 2.2 million tons (+2% compared to the previous week).

Egypt's state-owned company GASC has purchased 109,000 tons of sunseed oil and 15,000 tons of soyoil with deliveries from 05.10 to 05.11.2023. Sunseed oil was purchased at a price of 970 USD/ton C&F, and soyoil at 1,010 USD/ton C&F.