Grain Highlights 31.08.2022

According to Agritel's forecast, the corn production in France will reach 10.8 million tons in 2022, which is the lowest result for the last 100 years.

- In August, 3.7 million tons of grain were exported from Russia (2,662 in July and -40% compared to August 2021). The export of wheat was 3 million tons, barley exports were 0.6 million tons and corn exports reached 0.07 million tons. Over the period of July - August, the export of grain was 6.4 million tons, including 5.3 million tons of wheat. The biggest customers are Turkey with 1.34 million tons, Iran with 1.26 million tons and Egypt with 0.96 million tons.

- Russian grain is losing in the competitive struggle with Ukrainian grain. Now the price difference is 20-30 USD/ton and buyers are avoiding purchases from Russia. The export potential of Ukraine by the end of the year is 11-12.5 million tons and thus it will absorb traditionally Russian markets against the background of falling purchases from the main customers.

- During the first two months of the season, the export of grain from Ukraine reached 3.946 million tons, including 2,264 million tons in August (8,625 in 2021/22, and only in August 5,589). 1,139 million tons of wheat (4,573), 310,000 tons of barley (2,755) and 2,498 million tons of corn (1,264) were exported. The export of flour was 11,900 tons (24,100), including wheat flour exports of 10,400 tons (23,900).

- Three ships loaded with 107,000 tons of corn will depart from Ukraine. On Tuesday, a ship loaded with 6,300 tons of Ukrainian sunseed oil arrived in an Italian port.

- According to Agritel's forecast, the corn production in France will reach 10.8 million tons in 2022, which is the lowest result for the last 100 years. The total corn production in the EU will be 53.8 million tons, the lowest level for the last 15 years. The wheat production in France will be 33.63 million tons - the lowest level for the last 5 years. The export of wheat will reach 10.2 million tons. Over the period of July - August, 2.5 million tons (+14%) were exported. Export rates are expected to decline in the coming months.

- In July, soybean processing in the United States reached 4.91 million tons (4.74 in June and 4.52 in July 2021).

- Statistics Canada expects Canada's wheat production in 2022/23 to reach 34.6 million tonnes (22.3 in 2021/22). The spring wheat production is expected to reach 25.6 million tons (+9.3), winter wheat production is estimated at 2.5 million tons (-0.5), durum production is expected at 6.5 million tons (+3.5). Barley production will be 9.3 million tons (7), corn production will reach 14.8 million tons (14), oats production is expected at 4.5 million tons (2.8) and rye production is projected to reach 447,000 tons (466,000). Canola production will reach 19.5 million tons (13.8), and soybean production is predicted at 6.4 million tons (6.3).

- According to Conab data, as of 27/08/2022, 94% of the second corn production was harvested in Brazil (+4% for the week and 87% a year earlier). 6% of the planned areas for the 2022/23 first corn production have been sown (+4% are the week and 3% a year earlier).

- Datagro forecast a 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil of 151.8 million tons from 43 million hectares (124 in 2021/22 from 41 million hectares). Exports will reach 95 million tons (75.2). The corn production is projected at 120.5 million tons (114.7) and corn exports are estimated at 40 million tons (37.5).

- Algeria has purchased an unspecified quantity of wheat with delivery within 21.09 – 31.10.2022 at a price of 364 – 365 USD/ton C&F at a tender.