Grains Market Overview 20.08.2021

Yesterday, CBOT SRW wheat and corn futures prices dropped significantly and soybean futures prices slightly fell. In Paris, wheat, corn and rapeseed futures prices also decreased.

The currency pair EUR/USD fell to 1.1677. The price of US WTI crude oil decreased to 63.69 USD/barrel.

Oil fell to its lowest level since May, after protocols of the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Commission on Wednesday showed that most Fed employees are ready to cut monthly asset purchases and tighten policies. Oil traders are worried about the Fed's protocols as the central bank could potentially start tightening its monetary policy as early as September, when the next two-day meeting of the Open Market Commission takes place. Additional downward price pressure comes from the US Energy Information Administration's oil stock data. Although stocks declined in the previous week, there has been a significant increase in petrol stocks, indicating that demand for fuel is at risk, while the coronavirus delta continues to spread globally.

CBOT
Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat December 272.91 -3.12
Corn December 216.82 -5.61
Soybeans November 485.02 -12.22
Soymeal December 389.78 -7.39

 

EURONEXT
Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat December 243.75 -4.50
Corn November 215.75 -1.25
Rapeseed November 564.00 -8.75

 

Yesterday, CBOT SRW December wheat futures prices fell by 8 1/2 to close at $7.42 3/4 a bushel. The more expensive dollar and the drop on the corn and soybean markets lowered the price of wheat yesterday. There was no specific news about wheat that caused the decline. Rather, the factors were outside the wheat market. In the week ending 12.08.2021, the export sales of wheat from the United States were 306,678 tons (293,119 weeks earlier and 522,694 years earlier). The weekly export was 591,757 tons (627,929 and 406,941) and export commitments totaled 9.01 million tons (11.01). Romania's wheat production reached 11.3 million tons, a new record for the country. In 2020, the wheat production was 6.3 million tons. Japan bought 143,765 tons of milling wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia. Bangladesh also purchased 50,000 tons of milling wheat and Jordan - 120,000 tons.

Yesterday, Chicago December corn futures prices decreased by 14 1/4 cents to close at $5.50 3/4 a bushel. The appreciation of the American currency, the growing fears of another wave of coronavirus and the fall in the price of oil are the factors that pushed corn prices down yesterday. Weekly export sales of corn from the United States were 216,499 tons (377,553 and 61,574) and export commitments add up to a total of 70.32 million tons (44.22). Weekly corn exports reached 829.180 tons (1.06 million tons and 1.20 million tons). Sales of corn from the new crop were 509,987 tons (601,812 and 732,345) and export commitments for the new corn crop reach 18.6 million tons (12.20). The average corn yield in Iowa is projected at 196 bushels/acre (189 last year). The USDA forecasts a corn yield of 214 bushels/acre (192). The differences are significant. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts corn areas in Argentina in 2021/22 of 7.1 million hectares (+7.5% compared to 2020/21). The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates corn areas at ​​6.8 million hectares and the corn production at 55 million tons.

Yesterday, CBOT November soybean futures prices dropped by 33 1/4 cents to close at $13.20 a bushel. Soybean prices fell after the collapse of the oil price and the appreciation of the dollar. The insecurity that Afghanistan is bringing to the world is also one of the key factors. The USDA announced two major deals to export corn from the United States - 264,000 tons to China and 150,000 tons to Mexico. Weekly export sales of soybeans from the United States were 67,687 tons (96,921) and export commitments totaled 62.08 million tons (47.29). Weekly soybean exports reached 257,977 tons (129,705 and 762,004). Export sales of soybeans from the new crop were 2,142,119 tons (1,120,322 and 2,573,174) and export commitments for the new soybean crop now reach 13.86 million tons (20.55). The Pro Farmer tour in Iowa summarizes that the number of soybean pods is 4.1 - 17.5% higher than last year. The expected rainfall in the United States will help soybeans to achieve high yields, especially with more soybean pods than last year.

Export sales of wheat and corn from the new crop from the United States are weak. Sales of soybeans from the new crop rose sharply, but they are still lagging behind the previous year. Export commitments for wheat from the United States are 2 million tons lower than the previous season. Export commitment for soybeans from the United States are also lagging behind with almost 7 million tons. Only corn is ahead with export commitments for the new corn crop, but the gap compared to 2020/21 is narrowing. In general, we are now observing a much weaker start to the season compared to the previous year.