The EUR/USD currency pair decreased to 1.1821. The price of US WTI crude oil fell to 73.37 USD/barrel.

The price of oil remained unchanged, as OPEC+ failed to conclude a deal to restore suspended production in the coming months, depriving the market of important barrels as the economic recovery is accelerating. Without an increase in output, the market is likely to be in short supply, which could lead to a rise in the price of Brent to $80 a barrel by September, according to UBS Group AG.

Yesterday, CBOT September SRW wheat futures prices fell by 26 3/4 cents to close at $6.26 a bushel. As of July 4, 2021, 45% of the winter wheat areas in the United States have been harvested (33% a week earlier and 53% on average for the last five years). 16% of the spring wheat crops are in good and excellent condition (20% a week earlier and 70% a year earlier). In the week ended 01.07.2021, the export inspections of wheat from the United States were 258,438 tons (288,548 tons a week earlier and 413,895 tons a year earlier). Since the beginning of the season, total export inspections of US wheat have reached 1.79 million tons (2.41 million tons a year earlier). The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia reported that 590,000 hectares of wheat were harvested in the country (1.6 million hectares a year earlier) with an average yield of 3.29 tons/hectare (+0.23 tons/hectare). China continues to buy wheat heavily from Australia and is therefore absent from the market in the Black Sea region.

Yesterday, the prices of December corn futures in Chicago fell by 40 cents to close at $5.39 3/4 a bushel. Prices fell to the limit for the day which was reached at the beginning of the session. The changed weather forecast in the United States shows good precipitation in a very large part of the Midwestern United States, including the western and northern parts. Precipitation will reach volume of 25 - 75 l/sqm. Prices plummeted after an improved forecast for precipitation in the western parts of the US Corn Belt in the coming days. The pollination period has started and the rainfall will improve the condition of the crops at this very moment. Traders forgot last week's report on areas and stocks and liquidated contracts yesterday. However, there is no fundamental change so far. Rainfall, no matter how good it looks now, is still one-time and it comes after a long period of drought. It is important what will happen by the end of the month. 64% of the corn crops (64% and 71%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. The weekly export inspections of corn from the United States were at the level of 1.24 million tons (1.03 and 1.03) and since the beginning of the season, export inspections have totaled 58.15 million tons (34.4). AgRural reports that 12% of the second corn crop has been harvested in Brazil. The forecast for the corn production was reduced to 54.6 million tons (-5.4 million tons compared to the May estimate and -15.4 million tons below the official forecast of CONAB). Thus, the total corn production in Brazil is now estimated at about 80 million tons. This is a hope, and it seems to be the only one for reviving prices in the whole grain segment of the world. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina's corn production at 48 million tons, with just over 50% of the area harvested. Turkey has announced a tender for the purchase of 440,000 tons of feed barley with delivery in early August. Two weeks ago, there was a tender where about 400,000 tons of barley were purchased. The drought in Turkey is the main reason for the unusually strong imports of all crops. Barley imports in Turkey over the last two weeks add up to 0.8 - 0.9 million tons and there is no way this amount can change the course of prices, and they are currently falling significantly.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices fell by 94 cents to close at $13.05 a bushel. Expectations of good rainfall in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota are the key reason for the collapse in prices. Yesterday, soybean prices in Chicago totally collapsed, reaching the levels of the extended limit for declines. 59% of the soybean crops (60% and 71%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. Weekly exports inspections of soybeans from the United States were 206,152 tons (110,515 and 561,635), and since the beginning of the season they add up to a total of 57.45 million tons (37.38). The USDA attaché in Brazil forecasts the soybean production in the country of 137 million tons, which is +3 million tons higher than the previous estimate and matches with the official forecast of the ministry. For 2021/22, soybean areas have been increased by 0.3 million hectares to 40.3 million hectares. The soybean yield is projected at 3.56 tons/hectare, which will lead to a soybean production of 143.5 million tons. Rapeseed prices in Paris have fallen sharply since the beginning of the week.

Yesterday, the market removed part of the price premium associated with poor conditions for crop development in the United States. The question is whether the drought has so far taken away some of the potential of corn. With soy, it is still early days and so far there is hardly any damage. The situation in Brazil remains a signal of rising prices, which will be felt particularly strongly in the next three months. However, reassurance comes from Europe - excellent barley and wheat production. Corn crops in Europe are also in excellent condition. On the other hand, China's market presence is hardly felt. Purchases of any crops do not impress against the background of huge productions. Heavy rainfall in China in recent weeks has worsened the condition of wheat, but the condition of corn crops is excellent. The Chinese estimate the import of forage cereals in the country in 2020/21 at 45.5 million tons, and at 30 million tons in 2021/22. Given that the news comes from China, we must question it and be guided by their actions in international markets.